Primer: UFC 121

There are audiences who are happy to watch movies, and then there are people who get hung up on box office grosses. For them, “Avatar” measuring only a 15 percent drop in its third weekend is a titillating statistic. I don’t understand this, but then again, “Jackass 3-D” making over $50 million in three days has to do something to your psyche.

The same is true for mixed martial arts: Most fans care only about the result, but some are heavily invested in how much fighters are paid, how many pay-per-views they can pull, and whether their promoter has seen the best possible result.

The UFC has two roads leading out of Saturday’s fight between Brock Lesnar and Cain Velasquez: either Lesnar will win and maintain his status as the sport’s biggest draw, or Velasquez will offer an entirely new set of business opportunities as the promotion’s first Mexican heavyweight champion.

The key word is “opportunities.” Lesnar is a real-time attraction and virtually the only athlete in the sport of MMA that can make a substantial difference in box office business. He possesses only a fraction of the volatility that made Mike Tyson the fighter of his era, but produces the same uneasiness in spectators: the idea that something very bad could happen. It’s an impossible reputation to duplicate, and it survives only as long as Lesnar keeps winning.

Velasquez is a hypothetical. A Mexican champion should bring a stronger interest from that demographic, and it should be the kind of result that gives the sport a wider berth in culture, but previous attempts to exploit those emotions haven’t been successful. Diego Sanchez received only modest interest in his title runs; Tito Ortiz stretched credibility in appealing to the market. Maybe those passionate fans are less interested in a sport involving wrestling; maybe Velasquez is too reserved a personality.

Still, Velasquez is getting plenty of support, including a Los Angeles rally this week that had a healthy turnout. But practically speaking, most fighters should root for a Lesnar win Saturday. His popularity has a trickle-down effect: sponsors should pay more to appear on his undercards considering their visibility, which puts more money in athletes’ pockets.

Not that Velasquez particularly cares. Happy Brocktober. It might be the last.

What: UFC 121, an 11-bout card from the Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif.

When: Saturday, Oct. 23 at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view, with a live prelim special at 9 p.m. ET on Spike

Why You Should Care: Because Lesnar remains the most interesting, violent, and charismatic heavyweight in the sport’s entire history; because Velasquez brings better striking and wrestling ability than all of Lesnar’s previous opponents put together; and because hearing a Tito Ortiz excuse for a loss is usually the night’s best entertainment.

Fight of the Night: Sam Stout vs. Paul Taylor: a five-time Fight of the Night recipient (Stout) vs. a guy who’s earned the same bonus for all three of his losses (Taylor).

Hype Quote of the Show: “After I beat your ass, I’m gonna drink a Corona and eat a burrito.” -- Lesnar, outlining his politically tragic post-fight plans, on UFC Countdown.

Questions: UFC 121

For Velasquez/Lesnar, is bigger necessarily better?

Even after losing 15 or 20 pounds of junk weight thanks to a more diverticula-friendly diet, Lesnar is still going to be the biggest man in the Octagon on Saturday. While you’d think weighing 30 pounds more than your opponent is a significant advantage, that all depends on how well he can use it against a faster Velasquez.

On the feet, power might be more or less a wash: Lesnar has more weight behind his strikes, but Velasquez has light years of technique on him and may not even be the weaker puncher because of it. (Speed determines power as much as mass: if you’re lighter but faster, you can still hit damn hard.) On the ground and on his back against Shane Carwin, Lesnar showed precious little ability to scramble or find an escape hatch -- he essentially covered up and hoped for the best. If Velasquez can put him there, he might not ever get back up.

Does Jake Shields need an exciting win to advance?

A promised welterweight title shot for the winner of summer’s Jon Fitch/Thiago Alves fight was immediately downgraded to “maybe” when Fitch put on a wrestling clinic -- for most fans, the complete antithesis of what an “ultimate fighting” brand promises.

Jake Shields is significantly more armed than Fitch -- better jiu-jitsu -- but he’s also been known to slow cards to a crawl with conservative effort; Martin Kampmann is not necessarily the kind of opponent that will force him out of his comfort zone. If Shields expects a fight with Georges St. Pierre in 2011, he should put on the performance of a guy looking to impress in his career debut. To the majority of the UFC’s audience, that’s exactly what he’s doing.

Is Tom Lawlor/Patrick Cote a loser leaves town match?

Both Tom Lawlor and Patrick Cote are riding consecutive losses with several asterisks: Lawlor lost a close decision to Aaron Simpson, while Cote spent nearly two years laid up with knee problems. But unless you’re responsible for significant ticket sales, results are the ultimate. (The good news: one of them is guaranteed a win.)

Is Matt Hamill the better MMA wrestler than Tito Ortiz?

Ortiz, winless in his past several fights, told the LA Times that opponent (and former training partner) Matt Hamill is the better wrestler. “[But] It’s a fight,” he said. “I’m going to punch him…in the face.”

Sound strategy. Unfortunately for Ortiz, Hamill is allowed to punch, too, and seems to be doing it on a higher level than Ortiz has in recent bouts. He outstruck Michael Bisping. Keith Jardine, and Mark Munoz in the same frame of time Ortiz struggled with Forrest Griffin and Lyoto Machida. But if Hamill turns out being the better MMA wrestler, it might not be such a bad thing: Ortiz is underrated from off his back.

Is Shields putting too much weight on the fight?

Coincidence or not, Roy Jones, Jr. was never quite the same fighter after gaining -- and then rapidly losing -- 20 pounds of muscle mass in order to beat John Ruiz in a landmark heavyweight fight. He was knocked out back in his own natural weight class by Antonio Tarver and Glen Johnson, never taking the time to lose the extra weight slowly and safely.

Shields fought Dan Henderson at 185 pounds last April, but appeared to be oscillating between staying in that class and moving back to 170 -- until he and the UFC agreed he’d be a welterweight fighter. He went all-out to lose weight, according to father Jack Shields, and suffered a back injury in the process. Fighting is already a significant emotional and physical drain: trying to chop 15 percent of your body weight in a hurry isn’t going to help.

Red Ink: Lesnar vs. Velasquez

It’s getting tougher and tougher to argue against Lesnar’s chances in a prizefight. Size, athleticism, and the ability to turn it into an NCAA match make him possibly the least attractive option in the heavyweight division. There are car accidents with less risk of injury.

Still, every fighter has something worth exploiting. While Lesnar is a lead blanket on the ground, his stand-up is awkward and self-conscious: Shane Carwin had him backpedaling in seconds. Velasquez does not possess the power of Carwin, but it could be argued he’s the more disciplined and determined striker. Lesnar had to only survive a single Carwin offense -- by the second round, he was cooked. Velasquez has the fuel to make it a long night.

He also has the wrestling to remove himself from bad spots on the ground -- take another look at how a middle-aged, 220 pound Randy Couture escaped from underneath Lesnar -- and the mobility that comes from not having to carry 265 pounds around the ring. Lesnar’s job is to force that on him: to lean on, suffocate, and make Velasquez wish for an easier way to make a living.

At Stake: For Lesnar, the opportunity to continue dominance in the UFC’s deepest heavyweight division to date; for Velasquez, opening another door for the sport in the Latino market.

Wild Card: Lesnar has cardio, but there’s no telling what a back-and-forth fight will do to his brick and mortar body in rounds four or five.

Who Wins: Velasquez has the ability to defend himself in Lesnar’s world, but the reverse may not be true -- the Carwin fight did Lesnar’s standing reputation no favors. Velasquez by TKO.