After taking Memorial Day weekend off, the
Ultimate Fighting Championship returns with
UFC 302—a pay-per-view card high on star power this Saturday at
the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. Current
pound-for-pound great Islam
Makhachev gets back in action to defend his lightweight title
against Dustin
Poirier in a main event with high narrative stakes. It
represents a potential high-profile scalp for Makhachev to take and
also potentially marks the last title shot for the historically
beloved Poirier. A five-round co-headliner sees former middleweight
champion Sean
Strickland look to rebound in a winnable but dangerous fight
against Paulo
Costa, while Kevin
Holland and Jailton
Almeida each try to get back in the win column in supporting
roles. Almeida draws the more interesting fight against Alexander
Romanov. Throw in a compelling welterweight scrap between
Randy
Brown and Elizeu
Zaleski dos Santos to open the show, and all signs point to a
good time.
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Now to the UFC 302 “Makhachev vs. Poirier” preview:
It took a while, but it seems like Makhachev is finally his own man
as a potential all-time great. For most of Makhachev’s career, he
was discussed in the context of being the close friend and training
partner of Khabib
Nurmagomedov, particularly after a knockout loss to Adriano
Martins in 2015 robbed him of the same unbeatable aura that
benefited his mentor. As Nurmagomedov lorded over the lightweight
division, funneling opponent after opponent into his crushing
wrestling game, Makhachev quietly toiled away with what felt like a
less spectacular version of the same style. Given that Makhachev
isn’t quite the same level of elite athlete as Nurmagomedov, he
would have to get things done with a bit less dominant control and
a bit more technical skill. Once Nurmagomedov surprisingly retired
in 2020, it was time for Makhachev to get his promotional push as a
potential replacement, and he more than lived up to the task.
Makhachev kept up the most active schedule of his UFC career and
discovered his craft as a finisher, blowing through the opposition
until a one-sided win over Charles
Oliveira in 2022 crowned the Russian as the king of the
lightweight division. The tenor of the moment centered on
Makhachev’s win as a continuation of the Nurmagomedov legacy, and
he immediately set his sights on fighting Alexander
Volkanovski, who had looked unbeatable as featherweight
champion and was running out of challengers. The UFC put the fight
together, and the result was an all-timer of a bout in which each
man operated at an elite level. Volkanovski proved surprisingly
able to hold up to Makhachev’s wrestling game, but the Russian
showed a new level as a striker to gut out the narrow decision. The
initial plan for Makhachev’s next title defense was a rematch
against Oliveira, but Volkanovski wound up stepping up to the plate
on about a week and a half’s notice, which makes the end result of
their rematch a double-edged sword. Makhachev looked excellent in
breaking Volkanovski down and knocking him out within a round, but
the late notice does lend a bit of questioning to the proceedings.
At any rate, Makhachev looks like one of the best fighters in the
sport at the moment, with his own adaptable variation on the
Nurmagomedov style. It’s now finally time for him to fight a
full-time lightweight and one of Nurmagomedov’s former challengers
in Poirier, who looks to cash in on one last shot here.
Poirier has been beloved for years, as it has been over a decade
since what feels like his true breakout—a 2012 war against Chan Sung
Jung back when “The Diamond” was a featherweight prospect. For
the next half decade, Poirier had a well-earned reputation as one
of the most exciting fighters in the sport, even though that
occasionally served as his downfall. Poirier has always loved to
throw down, and that aggression would seemingly walk him into a
knockout just as he was on the verge of putting together some real
momentum. A 2017 decision win over Jim Miller
was the first sign that Poirier was tempering his need for violence
with some much-needed patience, and that blossomed into his
becoming one of the best lightweights in the sport. Victories over
Justin
Gaethje, Eddie
Alvarez and Max
Holloway kept up Poirier’s legacy of entertaining fights, only
now with enough control for him to score the biggest wins of his
career. A loss to Nurmagomedov in a 2019 title fight was a bit
deflating, partially thanks to Poirier starting the running bit of
him jumping on ill-advised guillotine chokes. However, his career
rebounded in surprisingly strong fashion. After an excellent win
over Dan
Hooker in 2020, Poirier was the beneficiary of two clear
victories over Conor
McGregor that elevated him into legitimate star status. After
another championship loss, this time against Oliveira to cap off
2020, it seemed like Poirier was settling into more of an action
fighter emeritus role than part of the championship picture,
particularly after a knockout loss to Gaethje in July. Instead,
Poirier is the latest title challenger to benefit from simply being
available at the right time. Gaethje figured to be the top
contender until he got knocked out by Holloway in April, allowing
Poirier—fresh off a win over Benoit St.
Denis in March—to jump the line and get what might be the last
title shot of his career. There’s definitely the chance for Poirier
to get a legacy-defining win, particularly if he can stay patient
enough to get Makhachev to lead. Poirier’s success can be mixed
when he’s forced to fill empty space—Gaethje’s own newfound
patience was the deciding factor between losing their first fight
and winning their second—but the St. Denis fight proved he’s still
at his best letting his opponents wade into close range and
answering their offense in a firefight. Of course, that St. Denis
fight also showed that Poirier is still needlessly focused on
guillotine chokes, an amusing running joke but something that would
once again spell certain doom here. It’s not a guarantee that
Poirier even gets the type of fight where he has the opportunity
for a win, particularly as Makhachev continues to show his status
as an excellent game planner, but even if he does, it’s hard to
trust the challenger to fight the perfect fight that he needs. The
pick is Makhachev via first-round submission.
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