Strikeforce ‘Diaz vs. Daley’ Preview

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Strikeforce brings two title bouts to the Valley View Casino Center in San Diego this Saturday (Showtime, 10 ET/PT), with a card that should provide a nice showcase for two of its top attractions.

Gilbert Melendez defends his lightweight belt against tough Tatsuya Kawajiri, veteran of many a memorable war in Japanese promotions. Welterweight champion Nick Diaz collides with English bomber Paul Daley in a match that should test Diaz’s chin, Daley’s stamina and could be an early candidate for “Fight of the Year.”

Here is a closer look at the Strikeforce “Diaz vs. Daley” main card, with the matchups, breakdowns and picks.

Strikeforce Welterweight Championship
Nick Diaz vs. Paul Daley

The Matchup: Despite being 27, Diaz is one of the most experienced fighters in the game, and his improvement shows in every fight.

With a busy standup style that keeps opponents overwhelmed and guessing, he collides with Daley, perhaps the most dangerous one-shot striker in MMA. Diaz’s third defense of his title brings extreme danger and a punishing style matchup, where the ultimate question will be which guy breaks under the pressure of what should be a concussive firefight on the feet.

Despite Diaz’s excellent submission and ground game, he has largely dispensed with takedowns of late, preferring to stand and punch with foes. That plays right into Daley’s strengths and his best hopes for winning, which is why this bout is one you do not want to miss.

Over the last two years, both men have proven overwhelming in the standup game but for vastly different reasons. Diaz wins due to volume, good combinations and intelligently placed shots, often throwing arm punches just to keep guys defensive while wearing them out. He also has one of the best chins in the game, and since nobody wants to plunge into his dangerous guard, he pretty much fights this way all night.

Daley, meanwhile, is a high-octane banger with huge power. He explodes with the kind of shots that send people into unconsciousness and relishes the chance to plant his feet and trade. He is a powerful welterweight and turns his body into every shot.

If there is a template for Daley to win, it is Diaz’s second match with K.J. Noons in October and a second-round submission over Evangelista "Cyborg" Santos in January. Noons gave Diaz a five-round battle by mixing in angles and countering, while Santos had success early by kicking to Diaz’s lead leg and taking away his striking base. Both guys did better than most foes against Diaz, and Daley has the tools to exploit those openings if Diaz offers them.

Diaz does not figure to have an easy time switching to a ground fight, either. His takedowns have traditionally been marginal, and Daley has decent takedown defense; he gave Jake Shields a good battle before finally being planted and submitted in the second round back in 2008.

Diaz is going to eat some bombs in this fight, and his chin is going to be tested severely. If he comes to wear down Daley with his usual stand-and-fling style, he will have to expect to eat his share of booming counter hooks, kicks and everything else thrown back at him.

What makes Diaz so tough is his ability to adjust in the middle of a difficult fight and keep his head. Superior wrestlers have held him down and outworked him to decision wins, but he can always pull guard or wear down Daley in the clinch, then hit a takedown or a big strike to stun his man. He is great at catching opponents in exchanges and exploiting openings.

Diaz has been legitimately knocked out just once -- early in his career, in the first of his three fights with Jeremy Jackson -- but if there is anyone in the game who could put him to sleep, it is Daley. The key factor is what Diaz does if a standing fight is not to his advantage. If he keeps slugging, he loses, but if he adjusts and looks to take it to the mat, his path to victory becomes much easier.

Expect Daley to light up Diaz early, forcing the Stockton, Calif.-based battler to change tactics. Diaz will oblige him for the first two rounds, then work to wear down Daley. Over five rounds, he will eventually find a way to get the fight to the mat, where his grappling pedigree and great conditioning make him so tough.

The Pick: Diaz by submission in four. This is a bout that promises truckloads of violence and big swings of momentum, but, at the end of the day, Diaz should have enough conditioning and mojo to pull out the win.

Continue Reading » Next Fight: Gilbert Melendez vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri