UFC 114 Preview: The Main Card

The UFC 114 pay-per-view violence-fest Saturday will be a defining day in the lives of Rashad Evans and Quinton Jackson. Former UFC light heavyweight champions, this may be the last time the loser even sniffs a title shot given the army of light heavyweight prospects coming down the pike. Meanwhile the winner will finally get the chance to regain the title he so briefly held.

Rampage-Evans won’t be the only bit of fistic intrigue at the MGM Grand Arena in Las Vegas, though. Tony Robbins disciple Diego Sanchez makes his return to the welterweight division, man-mountain Todd Duffee looks to continue his “Hard Work Tour” and Michael Bisping just wants everyone to forget the flying forearm Dan Henderson dropped on his dome.

In other words, read the preview and make sure you have your Saturday night clear of any possible distractions. For example, I filed a false death report on myself to make sure no one bothers me -- works like a charm every time.

Quinton Jackson vs. Rashad Evans

After months of trash-talk that gradually turned into repulsive race baiting and bizarrely homoerotic threats, Jackson and Evans will finally settle their super-charged feud. Adding some fuel to the raging firestorm is the light heavyweight title shot against Mauricio Rua awaiting the winner of this fight.

Who gets the marbles, pogs and all other available play pieces depends largely on what sort of strategy Evans shows up with and what kind of shape Jackson is in. Fresh off shooting the completely unnecessary movie adaptation of “The A-Team,” Jackson’s focus on fighting has been justifiably questioned, especially since he has a long history of distractions outside the cage and inconsistent performances. While no one is questioning Evans’ commitment to the sport, he is an undersized light heavyweight who has repeatedly shown an utter lack of strategy inside the cage.

One need only look at Evans’ most recent fights for proof that he doesn’t seem to fight with a game plan in mind. He gassed himself out trying to muscle around Thiago Silva and played right into Lyoto Machida’s game by stepping inside the pocket with badly telegraphed power punches. Even Evans’ win over Forrest Griffin saw him lose the first two rounds before lucking into top control and rightly capitalizing on the opportunity. In those first two rounds, however, Evans was soundly out-boxed and relied far too much on landing single power punches.

That won’t work against Jackson, who is the far more fundamentally sound boxer and one of the division’s best counterpunchers. At least he is when he bothers to show up for fights, a fact driven home by his wildly uneven performance against Keith Jardine at UFC 96. Still, Jackson has the chin to take Evans’ punches and he is far more accurate with his own strikes.

The way Evans can win this fight is by using his movement to stay outside the pocket and whip leg kicks at Jackson’s lead leg. For whatever reason Jackson refuses to check leg kicks despite the fact that he’s been ravaged by them several times before. Attacking with kicks, though, might require a level of strategic savvy that has long been missing from Evans’ game.

What really puts this fight beyond Evans’ reach, however, is his perplexing insistence on going for takedowns against physically stronger opponents. Not only does this tax his gas tank, but it also exposes his weak base, which everyone from Thiago Silva to Michael Bisping has exposed several times over. Jackson certainly has the wrestling to stuff Evans’ shot, especially since Evans tends to shoot in from way outside the pocket instead of setting up his level change with strikes.

All in all there really isn’t a clear path to victory for Evans unless Jackson enters this fight with his mind going in a million different directions. Given the stakes at hand and the utter disdain these two have for each other, it’s hard to imagine either fighter showing up with anything less than an alpha game. That scenario not only favors Jackson, but practically guarantees Evans will get laid out.