Preview: PFL 3 ‘Aubin-Mercier vs. Burgos’

Lightweights

Clay Collard (21-10, 3-2 PFL) vs. Yamato Nishikawa (21-3-6, 0-0 PFL)

ODDS: Collard (-255), Nishikawa (+205)

Based on his placement in two main events in 2022, it is clear the PFL would like to see Collard succeed; and that is understandable given the UFC veteran’s penchant for delivering exciting fights. While Collard has not disappointed in that regard, narrow defeats to the likes of Alex Martinez and Raush Manfio have prevented him from making it to the PFL’s biggest stage in previous seasons. Collard nonetheless remains a difficult out thanks to his pressuring, volume-based style and durability. With his professional boxing background, few MMA opponents can match Collard’s combination punching to the head and body, and he is always willing to trade shots in the pocket. Collard is far from one-dimensional, as he will mix in kicks and takedowns when the opportunity arises. He does not shy away from grappling exchanges, either, though his willingness to take chances on the ground can sometimes be to his detriment.

When it comes to a brawl, Collard should have a willing dance partner in Nishikawa, who will make his PFL debut at 20 years old. The Shooto lightweight champion was briefly expected to fight in the UFC last year, but contractual obligations nixed those plans. Nishikawa made his professional debut in 2016—when he was just 13 years old—and he has accumulated a wealth of experience at a young age. He will be returning to 155 pounds after competing at welterweight in his last three professional outings, so it is unclear if the cut to lightweight might be an issue this season. Nishikawa throws punches in combination well and likes to punctuate exchanges with knees in close quarters before moving out of range. He surrenders takedowns more often than one would like, but he is aggressive with strikes and submissions from his back. That approach also leaves him susceptible to absorbing his fair share of ground-and-pound. If he is the initiator, Nishikawa is a sticky grappler who will doggedly pursue takedowns and submission attempts.

An offensive-minded opponent falls right in Collard’s wheelhouse, and this appears to be a tall task for a talented fighter who is still years away from reaching his peak form as mixed martial artist. Expect Nishikawa to have his moments, but Collard will pull away by blending his volume striking with takedowns for a decision victory.

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