Preview: ‘The Ultimate Fighter 20’ Finale

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FEATHERWEIGHTS

Jeremy Stephens (23-10, 10-9 UFC) vs. Charles Oliveira (18-4, 6-4 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: The promising matchup between Stephens and Oliveira -- ranked 10th and 13th, respectively -- is a testament to the outstanding depth of the featherweight division. Oliveira was scheduled to fight Nik Lentz in September, but an illness the week of the fight led to his getting pulled from the matchup without pay. Stephens had been on a nice run since dropping to featherweight last year but lost a competitive decision to Cub Swanson in June. A win here would cement either fighter in a matchup with a top-10 -- and possibly top-five -- opponent in a division that is currently in flux.

Oliveira is a ridiculous talent who finally seems to be putting together his game after a rough first couple of years in the UFC. He personifies the aggressive, dangerous offensive fighter and can hurt the opponent at every range and in any phase. An upright, rangy striker with a slick kicking game and good punching combinations that pack a fair amount of pop. The most overlooked part of his game is his work in the clinch, where Oliveira transitions quickly between double under hooks, head-and-arm control and collar ties, all while landing hard knees and elbows and threatening with trips and throws. On the ground, Oliveira is a venomous finisher with an active, threatening guard, a variety of leg attacks and great instincts in transition. The problem is defense, as Oliveira is hittable at every range and occasionally leaves himself open on the ground.

Stephens, on the other hand, is a meat-and-potatoes wrestle-boxer with plus athleticism and thunderous power. Though he was once mostly a one-note puncher, the coaches at Alliance MMA have refined his approach, sharpened his timing and combination work and added an arsenal of vicious round kicks at all levels. Stephens excels at planting his feet and countering as his opponent comes forward, and he loves the uppercut to catch opponents as they change levels. Although he has always been a solid defensive wrestler, the additional threat of takedowns has made Stephens’ striking game all the more effective by forcing opponents to respect his level changes. From top position, Stephens can maintain control, and his ground striking has real thudding force to it. He carries his power late into the fight, although he could stand to throw more volume.

BETTING ODDS: Stephens (-115), Oliveira (-105)

THE PICK: This is a tough fight to call. Oliveira seems to be peaking, but so does Stephens, who was perfectly respectable in his loss to Swanson and on a nice run before that. Tactically, Oliveira’s tendency to fight upright makes Stephens’ best punch, his uppercut, less of a factor. On the other hand, Stephens throws well to the body, and Oliveira has been hurt there before. Stephens is difficult to take down and does a good job of creating space to escape the clinch, and while the American is not a stellar grappler, he is probably good enough to survive a brief period on the ground with Oliveira. The Brazilian works at a slightly quicker pace, but Stephens hits harder. In the end, I think Stephens’ edge in durability will be the difference, and he will catch Oliveira with a big punch later in the fight. Stephens by knockout in the third round is the pick.

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