Preview: UFC 191 ‘Johnson vs. Dodson 2’

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Heavyweights

Andrei Arlovski (24-10, 13-4 UFC) vs Frank Mir (18-9, 16-9 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Long after either of them has any right to be competitive at the top of the heavyweight division, two former UFC champions meet in a match that feels both relevant and shockingly compelling.

Arlovski’s resurgence, like that of Mark Hunt, is one of those heartwarming stories for which the aged heavyweight division seems uniquely suited. Arlovski’s career has been up-and-down from the start. Early knockout losses belied his solid championship run, but that was tainted by a pair of losses to Tim Sylvia that saw the Belarusian exit the UFC. Then the best run of Arlovski’s career, which included wins over the famously durable Roy Nelson and Ben Rothwell, was followed by his worst. Four straight losses, three of them devastating knockouts, had fans begging for “Pitbull” to hang up the gloves for good. Now it is 2015, and Arlovski is riding a five-fight win streak, capped with a knockout over fourth-ranked Travis Browne on May 23.

Mir’s recent performances have not been quite as uplifting, but a pair of stunning knockouts over ranked heavyweights gave us reason to remember why he was a two-time UFC champ. Mir’s penchant for inconsistency makes it too easy to forget that he has always been capable of making unexpected improvements and winning in equally unexpected fashion, whether it was knocking out Cheick Kongo and Todd Duffee or submitting Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.

Arlovski is and always has been a limited but very potent striker. His arsenal consists almost entirely of a thunderous right hand, which he throws either straight or as a head-snapping uppercut. These blows are set up by either a solid jab or an inside leg kick. Arlovski’s power and speed make up for his lack of offensive diversity. Once known for his reckless aggression, Arlovski has calmed down in recent years and now uses his still considerable athletic gifts to counter his opponents from the outside. Whether striking or wrestling, Arlovski’s defense is predicated on footwork, and he is most vulnerable when an opponent can trap him against the perimeter of the cage.

Mir has always been a serviceable boxer, and his ground game remains one of the best in all of heavyweight MMA. Like Arlovski, he tends to either finish or get finished, and he has secured an impressive 14 of his 18 wins by stoppage. In his most recent performances, Mir has shown off some of the cleanest boxing of his career, with an increased reliance on head movement and combination punching to catch opponents mid-exchange. Mir has yet to make similar improvements to his wrestling, and it is starting to seem like he never will, so barring a loss of balance, this fight should play out mostly on the feet.

THE ODDS: Arlovski (-160), Mir (+140)

THE PICK: Mir is no slouch, but his biggest flaw has always been cagecraft. Whether failing to entrap the eminently trappable Junior dos Santos or allowing Josh Barnett to maul him against the fence, Mir tends to allow his opponents to fight wherever they choose to fight. That habit could spell doom against Arlovski. Unless Mir can negate Arlovski’s movement, he will most likely end up walking into one too many counter punches, and that will be that. Arlovski wins by first-round knockout.

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