Preview: UFC 193 ‘Rousey vs. Holm’

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UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship

Joanna Jedrzejczyk (10-0) vs Valerie Letourneau (8-3)

THE MATCHUP: Will Letourneau be the first woman in the UFC to willingly engage Jedrzejczyk in a striking battle?

Jedrzejczyk is a study in steady improvement. Though she already came into MMA with a striking pedigree, the strawweight champ has made noticeable strides in her boxing over the past three years. Perhaps in an effort to avoid the takedown, Jedrzejczyk has relied more and more on her hands -- and elbows -- to get the job done. Jedrzejczyk uses a stiff jab to open up her opponents’ guard. When they parry the jab, she snaps a sharp left hook around the side of their waiting hand. When they pull away, she sends a dive-bomb overhand right whistling toward their jaw. When they manage to deal with either of those, Jedrzejczyk has a whole arsenal of other attacks to keep the proceedings interesting, like the Ernesto Hoost-inspired liver shot or the kicks, which the muay Thai stylist suddenly began throwing again in her most recent fight.

Perhaps the most impressive development in Jedrzejczyk’s skill set has been her takedown defense. Jedrzejczyk surprised many when she fought off Claudia Gadelha’s takedowns in 2014, but her technique has only gotten better since. Far from a simple sprawl-and-brawler, Jedrzejczyk uses tight angles to deny her opponents any chance of driving her easily to the ground, and she is always ready with a punishing elbow to de-incentivize the next attempt.

Letourneau is herself one of the better strikers in the division -- in terms of offense. The Canadian contender uses an educated left hand to set up a laser-straight right, itself often a setup for the left round kick, which just might be Letourneau’s best weapon. Letourneau attacks nicely in combination, going from punches to kicks and back again as the range requires. Defensively, however, Letourneau has none of the subtle head movement or footwork that makes the champion a dangerous pocket boxer. “Trouble” is more likely to cover up and back away than slip and pivot in mid-range, and when forced to stand her ground, she is very hittable as a result.

Letourneau’s grappling is decidedly so-so by comparison. She will wrestle an opponent to the ground if given the chance, particularly off of a caught kick, but she is no takedown artist. As a submission grappler, she is more likely to sit in half guard and pepper an opponent with short punches than look to pass and submit.

THE ODDS: Jedrzejczyk (-2000), Letourneau (+1000)

THE PICK: Letourneau is good at what she does, and with the strategists at American Top Team behind her, I do not doubt she will be as well-prepared as possible. Ultimately, though, she does not represent much of a threat to Jedrzejczyk’s young reign. Without noteworthy natural power, Letourneau would need to outbox Jedrzejczyk for three rounds to beat her, and so far, no one in MMA has come remotely close to outoboxing her for one round. The pick is Jedrzejczyk by TKO in round three.

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