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UFC Light Heavyweight Championship

Dominick Reyes (12-1) vs. Jan Blachowicz (26-8)

ODDS: Reyes (-260), Blachowicz (+220)

The UFC’s light heavyweight division is in a familiar spot with Jon Jones having vacated its title, though at least this time it was of the now-former champion’s own volition. There is some thought that Jones is getting out at just the right time for his legacy, given that many feel Reyes is the rightful champion. Reyes consistently rose through the ranks without much difficulty. A fringe NFL prospect coming out of Stony Brook University in New York, “The Devastator” quickly earned some notoriety for his highlight-reel finishes on the regional scene and continued his destructive ways in the UFC, winning his first three bouts in quick and one-sided fashion. Wins over Ovince St. Preux and Volkan Oezdemir were a bit more workmanlike but still resulted in clear victories; the Oezdemir decision was close, but that was more due to optics than effectiveness. Chris Weidman could have been an interesting test after the former middleweight champion moved to 205 pounds, given that defensive wrestling remains a clear question mark for Reyes, but he knocked out the “All-American” before that became much of an issue. That set up the fight with Jones, which saw Reyes get off to an excellent start to frustrate the then-champion before slowing down the stretch. Again, many agreed that Reyes deserved to walk out as champion, but if nothing else, he proved himself to be among the divisional elite. Reyes now has the chance to go ahead and finally claim the light heavyweight title here against Blachowicz, who has had a much rougher path to title contention.

Poland’s Blachowicz has won seven of his last eight fights—an amazing run considering how close he was to sliding out of the UFC just a few years ago. Blachowicz had a UFC-ready resume upon entering the promotion in 2014, and he announced himself with a quick knockout of Ilir Latifi that seemed to position him as a future contender. Instead, Blachowicz spent the next three years in the wilderness. Blachowicz obviously had some tools with which to work and would look good early, but eventually, everything would fall apart, typically in the form of exhaustion and gas tank issues. After potentially saving his job with a comeback win over Devin Clark in 2017, Blachowicz stepped in against Jared Cannonier and suddenly looked like a new fighter. Fighting behind an effective jab that left Cannonier flummoxed, Blachowicz started a run that showed the importance of the mental side of this sport. With some newfound confidence, Blachowicz’s cardio issues completely evaporated, even in a war that saw him avenge an earlier loss to Jimi Manuwa. Thiago Santos’ power was too much for Blachowicz to handle, but he has otherwise managed to stay within himself and take care of more fundamentally flawed opponents. Blachowicz has also taken care of former top middleweights in Luke Rockhold and Ronaldo Souza, and a quick knockout of Corey Anderson in February has set up Blachowicz to claim light heavyweight gold. If he completes the journey, it would be an amazing comeback story given where his career was three years ago.

Unfortunately for Blachowicz, this looks like Reyes’ fight to lose. Blachowicz’s entire game is built around that jab and annoying his opponents from long range, and Reyes’ kicking game gives him the type of range weapons that can basically defuse that approach before it ever gets going. If Reyes decides to pressure or get aggressive, there is certainly the chance for Blachowicz to change the fight with one or two big moments of offense; and if this winds up at close range, this could also be the fight where Reyes finally gets his wrestling game tested. With that said, Reyes should be able to win this fight at distance, where both men are most comfortable, and given that slowing down late potentially cost him the title against Jones, it would not be a shock to see Reyes adopt a more conservative approach and ride out an easy win. The pick is Reyes via lukewarm decision.

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