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UFC Flyweight Championship

C | Deiveson Figueiredo (20-1-1, 9-1-1 UFC) vs. #1 FLW | Brandon Moreno (18-5-2, 6-2-2 UFC)

ODDS: Figueiredo (-230), Moreno (+190)

As the flyweight division has struggled to find its footing in the UFC, Figueiredo seems set to prove that fighters of his size can capture the public’s imagination. In terms of sheer violence per pound, few can match “Deus de Guerra,” who is perennially capable of ending a fight in a single big moment of offense; his most notable pre-UFC highlight saw him backhand an opponent unconscious. After making his Octagon debut in 2017, Figueiredo rose through the ranks via brutality, whether it was a body-shot knockout over John Moraga or an underrated all-out war against Alexandre Pantoja. That all paved the way for Figueiredo’s 2020 campaign, which saw him wind up as the consensus “Fighter of the Year.” Figueiredo met Joseph Benavidez for the vacant flyweight title in February—a bout that saw him blast the perennial top contender for a second-round knockout victory. Despite the win, Figueiredo was not crowned champion, as a rough weight cut caused him to miss the championship limit. Without any other obvious top contenders, the UFC ran it back in July with a fight that was even more one-sided and violent. Figueiredo took the advantage early, and Benavidez did little else but survive before succumbing to a brutal choke at the end of the first round. November saw Figueiredo run through Alex Perez, scoring the tapout with a creative guillotine choke in a shade under two minutes. The win was so clean that it allowed the Brazilian to make a three-week turnaround to defend the title against Moreno, who himself had delivered a quick win earlier on the card. What ensued was one of the top handful of fights of the year and an instant classic, as Moreno proved surprisingly game in eating Figueiredo’s offense while returning fire, leading to the rare title fight draw. The only question afterwards was how soon both men would be healthy enough to run it back, and six months later, it shall be done.

Moreno’s top contender status is the culmination of a sudden career revival that, if nothing else, has positioned the “Assassin Baby” as one of the UFC’s top Mexican stars. Moreno was the low seed on the UFC’s all-flyweight season of “The Ultimate Fighter” back in 2016, which saw him put in a game performance in a loss against Pantoja. That fight aired early enough in the season that Moreno was able to step in on late notice for a UFC debut before the season wrapped, and a stunning upset win over Louis Smolka immediately made him a flyweight contender. After two more wins, Moreno got the opportunity to headline a card in Mexico City against Sergio Pettis, at which point things started to go south. Pettis patiently tore through all of the technical gaps in Moreno’s opportunistic style, and after suffering one more loss, Moreno suddenly found himself off the UFC roster. This came during the time when the UFC seemed set on shuttering the flyweight division, but once the promotion reversed that decision, Moreno was one of the first fighters to be brought back. He apparently put his time outside of the promotion to good use. After returning with a draw against Askar Askarov in a fight most felt he won, Moreno showed career-best form in rattling off three straight wins to earn the title fight against Figueiredo. After faring much better against Figueiredo than most expected, Moreno gets a golden opportunity once again to become the UFC’s first Mexican-born champion.

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This should be Figueiredo’s fight to lose—the first encounter was only a draw due to a blatant low blow from the champion—but there is still a solid chance that the rematch winds up as another five rounds of absolute mayhem. While Moreno answered essentially everything over the course of five rounds, it was still more or less Figueiredo’s fight. Even with the book on Figueiredo being that he has a low-output and high-power approach, he still matched Moreno’s volume over the course of five rounds while hitting the obviously harder shots. Once again, Moreno’s performance was tremendously impressive. Beyond his durability, the Mexican showed a surprising ability to match Figueiredo in terms of strength whenever the two locked up. However, it still feels like Moreno will have to spend the entire bout fighting from behind given the power advantage. There is the possibility that something goes wrong with Figueiredo’s weight cut that can cause the situation to go sideways, but if anything, the champion figures to be in better shape than he was in the first fight; he apparently went into the first bout with a stomach infection, and he figures to be less drained without having to make two drastic cuts over the course of three weeks. These two should pick up where they left off, so this should be an entertaining war for as long as it lasts, but trying to go 10 rounds with Figueiredo figures to take any man’s body to its breaking point. The pick is Figueiredo via third-round stoppage.

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