Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Belfort vs. Gastelum’

Light Heavyweights

Mauricio Rua (24-10) vs. Gian Villante (15-7)

THE MATCHUP: Rua has to have one of the strangest career arcs in history, at least when you understand his fights in the context of the expectations heaped upon him. Rua had an all-time great run in 2005 and, aside from a freak injury loss to Mark Coleman, kept the streak going right up until he was signed to the UFC in 2007. Since then, the only consistent thing about him has been the slow but unceasing degradation of his physical wellbeing. After multiple knee injuries and thousands upon thousands of strikes absorbed, Rua is a shadow of his former self. The “Shogun” we all know and love is no more, but the man standing in his place still has a few tricks up his sleeve.

Villante leaves no shortage of openings for such a fighter, a crafty veteran who wants to keep himself safe long enough to steal a choice shot here and there. Like Rua, Villante’s most effective weapons are his right low kick and his right cross. In the past, Villante has committed heavily to these weapons, often hanging around in the pocket and getting caught for his trouble. Villante seems to have fixed some of his mental weaknesses: He is less likely to stiffen up and swing for the fences than he used to be. Still, he rarely moves his head, and his willingness to plant his feet and cover up in boxing range makes him vulnerable to counters. He was hurt badly several times by Saparbek Safarov, who did nothing but eat punches and throw wildly in return.

Wrestling has increasingly played a part in Rua’s fights as he gets on in years. Villante has never been easy to take down, however, and he should have the advantage if the smaller Rua ends up in a clinch. Rua’s best bet is to plug away with low kicks -- a great weapon which has reappeared in his game since he returned to the tutelage of Rafael Cordeiro -- and counter Villante on the way in. Whether he can land the big shot before Villante does is another matter.

THE ODDS: Rua (-135), Villante (+115)

THE PICK: I get why this fight is happening. Villante is an unreliable powerhouse, and “Shogun” Rua is a cagey but shopworn veteran who used to be a powerhouse. It is essentially a winnable fight for either man, and that should make it interesting. No matter how hard I try, however, I cannot convince myself to celebrate the idea of Villante scoring the knockout against an old fan favorite, nor can I get too excited about the idea of Villante, who still seems to have some kind of potential, getting his clock cleaned by a fighter on the cusp of retirement. Villante is younger, though, and seems to be gaining discipline, slowly but surely. Therefore the reluctant pick is for Villante by first-round KO.

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