Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Hendricks vs. Thompson’

Heavyweights

Roy Nelson (20-12) vs Jared Rosholt (14-2)

THE MATCHUP: Nelson’s style is well understood. Despite a prodigious jiu-jitsu background, “Big Country” lives and dies by his cannon of a right hand. That weapon alone has not served him particularly well of late -- Nelson has won just one of his last six fights -- but there are few fighters who have faced anything like the murderer’s row with which he has had to contend. Rosholt is a fighter with some promise, but his name does not exactly inspire the same kind of fear and respect as those of Alistair Overeem, Mark Hunt, Daniel Cormier and Josh Barnett.

That last name is worth remembering, as Nelson showed measurable improvement for the first time in a long time in his bout with “The Warmaster.” Not only did Nelson fight capably for five of the most hectic rounds the heavyweight division has ever seen, but he showed measurable improvement in his wrestling both offensively and defensively; that should be helpful against Rosholt. Nelson has also made inconsistent but not insignificant strides in his boxing technique lately, augmenting his predictable right hand with a stiff jab and cracking left hook.

Rosholt should be one of the most promising prospects in the heavyweight division by virtue of his wrestling credentials. Like former teammate Johny Hendricks, however, he has not always effectively blended the striking and grappling aspects of his game. On the feet, Rosholt is a fairly solid offensive striker, with good pop in his hands and solid combination striking. He has not had the same luck in the realm of defense, suffering two knockout losses and coming very close to the same result on at least three other occasions. In a division with such dire consequences, Rosholt deserves some benefit of the doubt, but it does appear his chin is not the best; and it is certainly not as solid as Nelson’s.

Obviously, Rosholt’s wrestling is his greatest skill set. Though he does not have a bad double-leg, Rosholt tends to wrestle in layers rather than banking on an explosive shot. He is quite strong in the clinch and often hits single-legs off of the fence. In particular, he has a dangerous high crotch lift, which allows him to ground his opponent and work from half guard. Rosholt is a cautious out-fighter on the feet, and this mentality carries over into his ground game, which is based more on control than on damaging offense.

THE ODDS: Nelson (-160), Rosholt (+135)

THE PICK: Like Anthony Johnson-Ryan Bader on Jan. 30, this one feels like a “two true outcome” fight. The path to victory for Nelson is obvious -- and violent. Given Rosholt’s vulnerability to punches, Nelson stands a pretty good chance of getting the early knockout. Should he fail to land the early shot, however, Nelson will likely have to deal with Rosholt’s exhausting wrestling attack. There is one caveat, though: Nelson showed improved stamina and wrestling in his fight with Barnett, going five hard rounds with relatively little trouble. A Nelson who can not only stop the takedown but go more than one round is a dangerous opponent for anyone. The pick is “Big Country” by first-round KO.

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