Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Manuwa vs. Anderson’

Welterweights

Gunnar Nelson (15-2-1) vs. Alan Jouban (15-4)

THE MATCHUP: When he first came to the UFC, Jouban was a brawler who was willing to trade shots with anyone. Deep down, that wild man probably still lives in Jouban’s mind, but recently he has sought to control his demons. Jouban has not been brawling, even when the pace of the fight is all but insisting he do so. This newfound discipline has turned Jouban from mere action fighter to potential contender, and a win over Nelson would almost certainly vault him into the top 10.

Jouban is a 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu fighter, though you would never know it from the way he fights. Instead of entangling his opponents on the ground, Jouban skips around the ring, shucking off takedown attempts and firing away with his swift cross and debilitating liver kick. If Greg Jackson, in the process of coaching Alistair Overeem through his latest renaissance could have wiped the Dutchman’s brain such that he no longer had any fear of being knocked out, then the result would look a lot like Jouban. He is fleet of foot, quick to jump in with the power shots and then just as quick to slide back out of range, resume circling and keep the opponent guessing.

In stark contrast to Jouban’s textbook kickboxing, Nelson’s hodge-podge style is utterly unique. A decorated grappler, Nelson is not shy about engaging in a standup battle. With a background in Goju-ryu karate, Nelson is apt to bounce in and out of range in a long, deep stance, often with both hands dangling well below his chin. Striking in short bursts, often countering, Nelson covers distance with incredible speed. Despite the difference in physique, he is likely even more explosive than Jouban.

Nelson may feel that this fight is even everywhere, but he would be well-advised to take down Jouban if the early knockout does not materialize. Jouban has shown some good defense from his back, usually just before methodically working his way back to his feet. Nonetheless, Nelson’s jiu-jitsu is extremely effective -- against everyone but Demian Maia. He could be described as a constrictor on the ground. Nelson transitions readily from floating to crushing. When he reaches the back, opponents can expect a body triangle to crush their ribs while a probing hammerfist smacks them behind the ears, all before an arm quickly slides under their chin -- or over it -- and proceeds to squeeze like an anaconda. Jouban will probably be able to counter Nelson’s jiu-jitsu better than most, but the emotionless Icelander will most likely enjoy an advantage on the ground.

Nelson’s biggest weakness is not technical but physical. One look at his record tells the story of a fast-starter who fades quickly. Only three of Nelson’s 14 finishes occurred outside the first round, and he has never finished someone beyond the second. Of fights that went past the second round, Nelson went to one split draw, one hard-fought decision over a shopworn Jorge Santiago, one clear loss to Rick Story and one lopsided defeat at the hands of Maia. Jouban does have a tendency to get hurt early, but he tends to recover quickly and proceed to ramp up the pace. While Nelson stands a good chance of finishing Jouban early, Jouban stands a better chance of finishing Nelson late. Both men, however, are durable, and Nelson in particular is inhumanly unshakeable, so lots of momentum swings are to be expected.

THE ODDS: Nelson (-300), Jouban (+220)

THE PICK: Jouban needs a few things to beat Nelson. First is a powerful body attack to wear down Nelson down -- not a problem for Jouban, a lover of the liver kick. Second are the skills to defend and counter if Nelson gets the takedown; Jouban’s jiu-jitsu is rarely seen but very good. He should be able to hold his own in short bursts. Third and last is a stroke of good luck. Nelson is an explosive athlete and a difficult man to read. Doubtless Jouban will have a handful of close calls, especially in the first half of the fight. If he survives them, he can win. The pick is Jouban by unanimous decision.

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