Preview: UFC Vegas 104 Prelims

Women’s Strawweights

Stephanie Luciano (6-1-1, 1-0 UFC) vs. Sam Hughes (9-6, 4-5 UFC)

ODDS: Luciano (-238), Hughes (+195)

Hughes continues to chug along as an underrated fighter. She has a clear ceiling in terms of any potential championship hopes, but “Sampage” occupies a solid niche as a fighter who can separate the wheat from the chaff in the UFC’s strawweight division. A track athlete by background, Hughes had the cardio and toughness to pull off a pressure-heavy approach but little else when she got the UFC call as a too-raw prospect, immediately finding herself in deep over her head. However, Hughes has rounded things out and proved inexhaustible. She has run into an athletic ceiling against stronger wrestlers and faster strikers, but Hughes’ opponents need both the skill and commitment to keep her at bay for three rounds, which has proven more difficult than expected. Hughes’ next assignment is Brazil’s Luciano, a prospect who’s still a bit hard to parse but seems to be firmly improving from fight to fight. Luciano’s regional film wasn’t particularly impressive, as she looked tough but appeared to be at an athletic deficit for the UFC level. She surprisingly got a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2023 despite her fight with Talita Alencar going to a draw. Alencar, an ace grappler, dominated her for two rounds but exhausted herself in the process, allowing Luciano to stage a massive comeback in the third round and even out the scorecards. After a few delays to Luciano’s UFC debut, she eventually wound up making it to the Octagon for a rematch against the since-signed Alencar. It went much better for Luciano the second time around. She was able to take the initiative from the jump and walk away with a clear decision victory. Luciano has the size and disposition to be effective, along with having youth on her side, but it’s unclear exactly where she stands at this point in her career. Her last fight against Alencar was the best showing of her career, but it was also a rematch against a solvable opponent. Luciano seems worth the flier here given that she’s large for the division, won’t break and showed some improved takedown defense in her last fight, but it wouldn’t be a shock if this was too much too soon. The pick is Luciano via decision.

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