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Welterweights

Carlos Condit (31-13, 8-9 UFC) vs. NR | Matt Brown (22-17, 15-11 UFC)

ODDS: Condit (-160), Brown (+140)

This fight probably comes a few years too late, but it will still be nice to see two all-time great bringers of violence lock horns for what could still be an all-out war. When Condit got his last title shot against Robbie Lawler to kick off 2016, it was more or less a lifetime achievement award for being one of the sport’s most exciting fighters. “The Natural Born Killer” was not all that far removed from a run as interim champion, but inactivity—it saw one of the prior attempts to book this Brown fight fall through—had limited him to all of one appearance over the previous two years. Still, there was not an obvious next challenger for then-champion Robbie Lawler, and so the UFC decided to put together about as excellent a title fight as there has ever been on paper. It certainly came through in practice, as the two men combined for 25 minutes of pure violence for a nip-tuck fight that only barely went Lawler’s way. The fight has only gained in stature as time has passed since it essentially served as a last hurrah for both men. Lawler quickly got knocked out by Tyron Woodley in his last defense and has only had flashes of brilliance since, while the fight also marked the beginning of a five-fight losing streak for Condit. His fighting style has typically centered around his willingness to eat offense in pursuit of cracking his opponent’s code, throwing out different ideas and techniques until something works, with the full understanding that he will often have to rely on his ability to take shots that would finish most fighters. Beginning with his 2017 defeat to Neil Magny, the third setback in that five-loss streak, Condit had obviously lost a step. His chin has held up as well as ever, but with just a bit less pop in his fists and ability to throw volume, Condit could never quite get over the hump and turn the tide against younger and stronger opponents. To be fair, Condit also was not given many favors by the matchmakers. His takedown and grappling defense was a clear weakness even at his peak, and the promotion saw fit to keep matching him against opponents who could take him down and tap him out. After nearly two years off, Condit returned in October and showed what he still had left in the tank against Court McGee. It was far from a vintage Condit performance, but against a generational peer who did not offer much danger, the former interim champ managed to stay dedicated to a range striking game that continued to pour on damage. It was enough to show that Condit was still in the soft-landing phase of his career, and Brown presents a fun next challenge for him to attempt to build some momentum.

It is worth revisiting just how unlikely Brown’s run to welterweight contention seemed at one point. “The Immortal” enjoyed a hot start to his UFC career after the seventh season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” but an eventual three-fight losing streak seemingly had him pigeonholed as a journeyman action fighter, with Brown even needing to outwrestle John Howard in 2011 in order to keep his spot on the roster. In fact, when Brown handily beat Stephen Thompson in 2012, it was taken as a sign that “Wonderboy” likely could not cut the mustard at the UFC level. Instead, it was the second win in a seven-fight streak that saw Brown get one fight away from the title. Brown always brought the entertainment, so it was an absolute pleasure to see him bring the results, with his 2014 win over Erick Silva in an all-time great comeback serving as a particular highlight. However, a decision loss to Lawler in a title eliminator stopped Brown’s dreams of fighting for welterweight gold, and he eventually settled into a level right below true contender status. The divisional elite could take advantage of Brown’s defensive holes, but everyone else would be in for a rough time. For a while, it looked like Brown’s career would end with a spectacularly brutal knockout of Diego Sanchez at the tail end of 2017. He teased retirement both before and after the fight before eventually signing to fight Condit the following spring, but a torn ACL in training raised some concerns about whether or not Brown would ever return. He did eventually stage a comeback with a win over Ben Saunders to cap off 2019, but his last fight against Miguel Baeza was a mixed bag. Brown looked as potent as ever for the beginning stretch of the fight, but Baeza eventually took over and scored a surprising knockout to kick off the second round. Baeza has done nothing but impress since, but it does raise some concerns for a fighter just days shy of his 40th birthday, and this fight should help tell whether or not that was a blip on the radar or a permanent red flag.

Even coming off the knockout loss, Brown still appears to be the more reliable fighter over the course of what this fight figures to be. Condit’s win over McGee was heartening, but it was also a perfect stylistic matchup for him to show if he had anything left. McGee was not the type of younger and faster athlete to beat Condit to the literal punch, and he fights at a middling pace that was never going to force Condit to keep up. Brown certainly will not overwhelm Condit athletically, but it is the latter point—the type of violence and pressure that Brown brings—that is the main concern. Condit’s most disheartening losses over the course of that five-fight streak were against fighters who were willing to just charge forward and try to get him against the fence or on the mat before he could pull the trigger. While Brown is certainly the slowest and least durable of that bunch at this point in his career, it still figures to be a winning game plan here; he even showed off his wrestling as recently as that aforementioned win over Saunders. Of course, the danger for Brown is the question about his durability at this point, which mostly comes down to the Baeza loss and whether or not that was a sign of things to come. With Condit not being that level of one-shot knockout artist, it is easier to see Brown set the terms for this fight and survive for three rounds. The pick is Brown via decision.

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