UFC 143 Preview: The Main Card

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Heavyweights
Roy Nelson (16-6, 3-2 UFC) vs. Fabricio Werdum (14-5-1, 2-2 UFC)

The Matchup: Werdum returns to the UFC after a three-year absence and a couple of high-profile bouts against Alistair Overeem and Fedor Emelianenko.

Most recently, the Brazilian dropped a disappointing unanimous decision to Overeem in June, when his insistence on trying to bait the hulking Dutchman into a ground game made for less than scintillating action. It was a testament to Werdum’s all-world jiu-jitsu skills that Overeem was reluctant to comply, and that wariness allowed Werdum to land a decent volume of strikes on the feet. While Werdum seemed to do a solid job of throwing off Overeem’s timing, he did not connect with enough power to sway the judges. The standup of “Vai Cavalo” has improved over the years, but it is not enough to earn win bonuses on its own.

A slimmed-down Nelson did what he was supposed to do at UFC 137, stopping Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic on strikes in the third round. It was a much better performance than the one he gave against Frank Mir five months earlier, when a bout with walking pneumonia sapped his cardio. Like Werdum, “Big Country” is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, but that does not mean their skills are equal. Nelson is at his best in top control, where he can use his girth and strength to pass guard and bully opponents. A favorite weapon of his is the mounted crucifix, which allows him to enlist his bulge in launching an unimpeded assault on the ground.

Werdum, meanwhile, is capable of stringing multiple submissions together, whether on top or on his back. Both men like to use the clinch to set up takedowns, and whoever can get the best of these battles will have a significant advantage. Werdum is generally craftier in these situations and will make it difficult for Nelson to execute his favored outside-trip-to-half-guard maneuver.

On the feet, Nelson has a granite chin, as demonstrated by his going the distance with Junior dos Santos at UFC 117, and can score the occasional knockout with his overhand right. Mostly, he prefers to fire off one-two combos at a relatively safe distance before moving forward to force the clinch. Likewise, Werdum uses his striking as a precursor to getting fights to the ground. After facing Overeem, he is not likely to be scared of anything Nelson has to offer in the standup. However, Werdum’s tendency to drop his hands in exchanges could come back to haunt him if “Big Country” connects on one of his haymakers.

The Pick: Nelson is solid as a middle-of-the-road contender, but he tends to falter against Top 10-level competition. His best chance is to hurt the Brazilian with something big early. Nelson tends to take a decent amount of damage standing, which will allow Werdum to soften him up for takedowns. Werdum wins by third-round submission.

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