Preview: UFC 250 ‘Nunes vs. Spencer’

Bantamweights

Aljamain Sterling (18-3) vs. Cory Sandhagen (12-1)

ODDS: Sterling (-115), Sandhagen (-105)

While slotting Assuncao-Garbrandt into the co-main event certainly feels like the UFC hopes the latter can earn his way back to a title shot, this bout between two underappreciated talents certainly feels like the rightful No. 1 contender fight. Sterling has never quite gotten the shine that he has deserved. Despite coming into the UFC as a top prospect and working his way to contender status, this is just his third main card fight in his six years on the roster. Sterling openly fought out his contract with the UFC, and over those four fights, he easily passed every roadblock ahead of him. His length gave opponents issues on the feet, and the “Funk Master” could always rely on his excellent wrestling and submission game to handle his counterparts rather easily. After testing out free agency and making his way back into the UFC fold, Sterling got a bit of a push heading into his bout against Bryan Caraway, which made it the worst possible time for him to enter the roughest stretch of his career. Caraway and Raphael Assuncao managed to hang with Sterling and expose the holes in the Long Islander’s game, particularly his reliance on an inefficient range kicking game that left him tired in later rounds. Each of those losses resulted in split decisions that could have gone the either way, but losses are losses; and after suffering them in back-to-back outings, Sterling was left to rebuild. He has done so quite remarkably. Sterling has won six of his last seven bouts in one-sided fashion—a quick knockout loss to Moraes at the tail end of 2017 was the lone outlier—and looked excellent during the process. In his 2019 wins over Jimmie Rivera and Pedro Munhoz, Sterling showed much more comfort on the feet and an ability to use his range; the Munhoz fight stands out for Sterling’s constant movement and ability to keep a pace for three rounds without suffering the consequences. Sterling has proven himself as a championship-level fighter in one of the sport’s deepest divisions, though given the chaos at 135 pounds at the moment, he may have to keep winning to get his deserved shot. Next up: Sandhagen.

It has flown somewhat under the radar, but Sandhagen’s rise through the ranks is as impressive as anyone’s in recent memory, as the Colorado native has gone from unknown prospect to title contender in just five fights over the course of 19 months. A training partner of T.J. Dillashaw, Sandhagen uses a similar movement-heavy striking style, made all the more effective by his massive 5-foot-11 frame for the division. After handling Austin Arnett without much of an issue, Sandhagen got to show off his grappling skills in his next two appearances, first surviving some early trouble to score a win over Iuri Alcantara and then winning some scramble-heavy madness against Mario Bautista. Those performances were all promising, but it was still surprising to see the UFC rush Sandhagen into the deep end against John Lineker in 2019. Sandhagen secured a decision win, and while it was the type of fight that could have gone either way, it was shocking to see how much of his skill translated against better competition. He drew out Lineker’s counters, played with range and generally kept the pathologically aggressive Brazilian from truly unloading. Sandhagen’s last performance against Raphael Assuncao was similarly impressive. Assuncao is obviously not a berserker like Lineker, but Sandhagen showed his poise, used his frame excellently and even got the better of some grappling exchanges. Sandhagen’s success may have come completely out of nowhere, but he has looked consistent enough that he should be a problem at bantamweight in the years to come. This could be where he announces himself as a true title contender.

This should be an excellent fight, but it is a bit hard to parse, if only because this is the rare time where each man is facing a similarly long opponent. Against Lineker and Assuncao, Sandhagen could apply pressure but also play with his range as needed, and when he chose to kick from a distance or use similarly long strikes, his opponents did not have much of a chance to return fire. He will not have that safety zone here. Sterling’s frame is just as lanky, and the New Yorker is just as willing to return fire with some kicks, even if he has gotten much better at filling out things with his boxing. However, Sandhagen still probably wins this if it takes place primarily on the feet, as he appears to be the more comfortable fighter when playing with range. Plus, he is also much more pathologically aggressive. The lack of a reach advantage works both ways. Munhoz was aggressive in tracking down Sterling and caused some damage, but there were instances where the Serra-Longo Fight Team rep was just too quick and too long for the Brazilian to get much done. If Sandhagen just bites down and keeps coming after Sterling, he will probably be able to land more often, even if both men are going to get hit more often than usual. The X-factor is Sterling’s wrestling and whether or not he can just enjoy success controlling Sandhagen on the mat. While that is a legitimate concern, Sandhagen has also proven to be an excellent scrambler and should be able to keep himself out of the type of trouble that can win Sterling rounds. The pick is Sandhagen via decision in what amounts to the marquee matchup of the event.

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