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Bantamweights

#8 FLW | Matt Schnell (15-5, 5-3 UFC) vs. #9 FLW | Rogerio Bontorin (16-3, 2-2 UFC)

ODDS: Schnell (-160), Bontorin (+140)

Schnell has definitely figured things out, but it is still hard to peg exactly where the Louisiana native stands in the flyweight division. Schnell entered the UFC with seemingly all the tools to be a flyweight contender, showing knockout power and a grappling game that was both flashy and vicious. In short order, it became clear that “Danger” was the rare flyweight whose chin was a complete liability, as best evidenced by a shockingly sudden knockout on the mat against Hector Sandoval. However, Schnell impressively changed up his approach, adopting a slower-paced and more defensive style built around using his rangy frame to keep opponents at bay on the feet. That earned Schnell an unexpected four-fight winning streak, but that came to a quick and brutal end against Alexandre Pantoja. Schnell was more than willing to engage in a brawl and ate a knockout blow as a result. That seemed to put a clear ceiling on this new version of Schnell, but he rebounded with the most impressive performance of his career in January, staying out of danger against the slow-paced but accurate Tyson Nam over three rounds. Schnell looks to keep his momentum going here against Brazil’s Bontorin—another fighter who should be hunting for the knockout. Bontorin has a basic but dangerous approach, built around singular power strikes and a crushing grappling game, though he has hit his own ceiling in his last two fights. Ray Borg managed to outwrestle him, and Kai Kara France scored a sudden comeback with a knockout after spending a round on the mat. Bontorin’s approach is rudimentary enough that Schnell could once again play matador for three rounds. Still, the bet is that Bontorin’s constant pressure should lure Schnell into a bad decision at some point. The pick is Bontorin via second-round knockout.

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