Preview: UFC 273 ‘Volkanovski vs. Korean Zombie’

Welterweights

#11 WW | Khamzat Chimaev (10-0, 4-0 UFC) vs. #2 WW | Gilbert Burns (20-4, 13-4 UFC)

BETUS ODDS: Chimaev (-550), Burns (+375)

It is time to find out if Chimaev is a contender. The Chechen-Swede might have been the top breakout fighter of 2020. Signed as an injury replacement that July, Chimaev handled John Phillips without much issue—not a surprise—but started capturing the greater imagination once he decided to step back into the cage just 10 days later, cutting down to welterweight and running through solid prospect Rhys McKee in under a round. Chimaev then kept up what was shaping up to be an unprecedented pace. Less than two months after the McKee win, Chimaev knocked out Gerald Meerschaert in just 17 seconds. Between the quick turnarounds, the one-sided wins and the seeming well-roundedness of Chimaev’s skill set, “Borz” became one of the biggest talking points in the entire sport; and the UFC capitalized on that momentum, matching Chimaev with top welterweight contender Leon Edwards in the main event of the final card of the year. Then everything went sour. COVID-19 issues on both sides delayed and then fully scrapped the fight, with Chimaev even seemingly retiring for a moment after coughing up blood—a series of events after which he was still relatively silent for a few months. Chimaev finally made his return in October and picked up right where he left off, quickly bullying Jingliang Li and scoring a submission within a round, establishing himself as a welterweight worthy of a ranking at the very least. What Chimaev has shown has been about as impressive as any fighter through his first few UFC bouts, though plenty of questions still remain about how he will fare in the face of adversity or resistance. Chimaev has been hit with all of one significant strike in his UFC career to date and has never gone past the second round. Hopefully, Burns can at least provide some clarity in those respects. If not, everyone is in trouble.



By contrast, Burns had a much more traditionally difficult path towards relevance. A decorated grappler, Burns went through the usual growing pains of a prospect from that realm. While he could work some wizardry on the mat, getting to that point proved to be a bit difficult as “Durinho” shored up his wrestling and striking. That eventually led to a run at lightweight that was promising at points but inconsistent. It was impressive to see Burns absolutely wallop opponents like Jason Saggo, but his 2018 loss to Dan Hooker, in particular, seemed to suggest that Burns would never find the comfort to truly find contender status. Still, Burns was considered dangerous enough that he apparently had trouble finding fights at 155 pounds, so the Brazilian made his own luck and changed the course of his career, stepping in on late notice at welterweight for an August 2019 bout against Alexey Kunchenko. Aided by a lesser weight cut, Burns found himself able to up both his pace and power at 170 pounds, and it took all of nine months for Burns to make himself the division’s top contender, with wins over Kunchenko, Gunnar Nelson, Demian Maia and Tyron Woodley. COVID-19 delayed Burns’ eventual title shot until February 2021, but it was still about as strong a showing as anyone has had against champion Kamaru Usman, with Burns blasting “The Nigerian Nightmare” early before the champ was able to stage a comeback. With an impressive wrestling-heavy win over Stephen Thompson in July, Burns has kept himself relevant enough to stay among the welterweight elite, even if there is currently not much steam towards an Usman rematch. That could change if he derails what might be the sport's hottest prospect.

There is an aspect to this matchup that makes it quite enticing. Chimaev is at his best as a bullying wrestler, and Burns might be the welterweight best equipped to find a submission in that phase of a fight. Of course, every fight starts on the feet, and that figures to work in Chimaev’s favor. At lightweight, Burns never fared particularly well against larger opponents who looked to pressure him—something that has not been tested much at welterweight due to the matchups Burns has been served. Even without actually shooting for a takedown, Chimaev’s pressure figures to make Burns uncomfortable, and it would not be a shock if he got the ball rolling towards a quick finish with a few powerful blows. If Burns goes down swinging, there is certainly a shot that he can score a quick knockout himself, as Chimaev’s chin is completely untested at this point. However, with Burns himself having proven not to be particularly durable, it is hard to pick him to win a war of attrition on the feet. If Chimaev goes with a wrestling-heavy game plan or otherwise cannot find a quick finish, then this is basically a coinflip due to all the unknowns involved. Unfortunately, in a way, this still feels like another fight will Chimaev will put in a strong enough performance that there are still no answers about how he fares when something goes wrong. The pick is Chimaev via first-round knockout.

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