Preview: UFC 304 ‘Edwards vs. Muhammad 2’

Lightweights

#15 LW | Bobby Green (32-15-1, 13-10-1 UFC) vs. Paddy Pimblett (21-3, 5-0 UFC)

ODDS: Green (-120), Pimblett (+100)

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The kid gloves are now officially off for Pimblett. The mop-topped Liverpool, England, native certainly has some undeniable charisma that the UFC has effectively marketed, and while “The Baddy” has gotten some advantageous matchmaking in the process, it’s a credit to Pimblett that he has made what appears to be a dysfunctional game work to the level that it has. Pimblett’s striking is quite messy and defensively void, but his durability and aggression papers over a lot of those issues, and besides that, it’s mostly a means to an end in terms of leading to his wrestling and grappling game, the latter of which is quite impressive and effective. Pimblett’s first few UFC fights followed the same script, with the Scouser absorbing damage before finding a submission. He at least stuck to his game for a controversial decision win over Jared Gordon once the American took his foot off the gas. However, it’s hard to say Pimblett’s last performance in a win over Tony Ferguson was particularly encouraging. After missing about a year due to a major ankle injury, Pimblett didn’t show much of his usual dynamism over the long haul, winning an ugly grind over a particularly deteriorated late-career version of Ferguson. Still, a win’s a win and we are past the point of soft tests for Pimblett, so next up is a shot to break into the rankings against a steady vet in Green.

Green’s career seemed to be cursed for about half a decade. After coming over from Strikeforce and shooting up to fringe contender status, Green suffered a combination of injuries and personal tragedies that kept taking him out of fights; and on the rare occasions Green did make it to the cage, judges refused to reward his defensively focused and counter-heavy approach on the scorecards. Yet somehow, as nearly everything for the UFC went sideways due to the pandemic in 2020, the fates decided to reward Green with a breakout year. The chaos of the promotion’s matchmaking allowed a suddenly healthy Green to keep stepping up on late notice, and he reeled off win after win to become a bit of a breakout star once the Octagon went back on the road. Green’s late-career championship window seemingly closed with a loss to Islam Makhachev early in 2022, but he has still held his own as a relevant fighter, even if the cracks are starting to show a bit in his late-30s. He gets hit a bit more than he should, given how much of his style has been dependent on his defensive reflexes, and he has tried to adjust with a more aggressive style at points that still leaves him in danger. Even with those issues, Green still has his standout performances, like his win over Grant Dawson in October, when he was facing another aggressive wrestler with defensive striking issues and scored a knockout in just 33 seconds. Pimblett might be catching Green at the right time, but the inverse might also be true given how poor the Englishman looked in his last outing. This could just wind up as an ugly grind over three rounds, but the pick is Green via first-round knockout.

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Edwards vs. Muhammad
Aspinall vs. Blaydes
Green vs. Pimblett
Duncan vs. Rodrigues
Allen vs. Chikadze
The Prelims