Preview: UFC Fight Night 138 ‘Oezdemir vs. Smith’

Light Heavyweights

Misha Cirkunov (13-4) vs. Patrick Cummins (10-5)

ODDS: Cirkunov (-490), Cummins (+390)

In contrast to the two headliners on this card, Cirkunov is a stark example of just how hard it can be to break into the light heavyweight elite. A Latvian-Canadian judoka, Cirkunov arrived with a ton of hype as the UFC’s next great Canadian hope and lived up to it through four UFC appearances, showing off some solid striking and some venomous submission skills in taking out opponent after opponent. However, as soon as Cirkunov found himself in featured fights, the hype train went completely off the rails. Volkan Oezdemir figured to be a tune-up fight but instead turned into a 28-second loss for Cirkunov, who charged directly into a knockout punch. Cirkunov was doing well in his last fight against Glover Teixeira until one takedown went awry, leaving him pinned under the Brazilian as he was pounded out for the finish. Cirkunov still has a ton of upside, and 31 years old is still young for the division. All the skills that made him a top prospect are still there, but those losses have badly stunted any excitement about Cirkunov’s career, so he could use a showcase performance against Cummins.

Nearing 38 years of age, Cummins has already had the gate firmly shut on him after a late start to his UFC career. Cummins infamously trash talked his way into a late-notice debut against Daniel Cormier but recovered from that blowout loss to go on an impressive run and show off his high-level wrestling game. However, once Cummins hit a certain level, his combination of poor defense and shaky chin made him a sitting duck for the division’s top fighters, who almost unanimously managed to stun Cummins on the feet before putting him out in brutal fashion. Cummins still seemingly gets rocked at least once every fight, but he has done a solid job of fighting through adversity in recent bouts, winning two of his last three. At this point, he is clearly a test for younger and more interesting prospects rather than a fighter gearing up for any sort of run towards the title.

Cirkunov should take this, or that will end his time as a legitimate prospect. Cirkunov’s two losses can basically be blamed on to two moments: the knockout punch that felled him against Oezdemir and the takedown gone awry against Teixeira. While both instances did raise some concerns about Cirkunov’s weaknesses -- he was too upright going in against Oezdemir and looked terrible from the bottom against Teixeira -- he is 10 bad seconds away from being a top contender riding a 10-fight winning streak. No one can be sure how well Cummins’ game is going to work here. He might be able to outwrestle Cirkunov, but while Latvian-Canadian looked from the bottom against Teixeira, Cummins is not much of a control wrestler, so I am unsure if the American can keep the fight on the ground. If this fight is contested on the feet, Cirkunov should have the advantage, both in terms of skill and durability. Cummins is a much tougher out in terms of taking a punch than he was even two years ago, so I think he can survive all three rounds, but Cirkunov should have enough moments standing to take this one. The pick is Cirkunov via workmanlike decision.

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