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Welterweights

Bryan Barberena (14-6) vs. Randy Brown (10-3)

ODDS: Barberena (-265), Brown (+225)

After toiling for a few years as one of the UFC’s more underrated fighters, it has been nice to see Barberena finally get his due. Barberena first got on the radar in 2016 as a nondescript but solid fighter. The UFC apparently saw him as a solid setup opponent for Sage Northcutt, only for Barberena to take down Northcutt and submit him without much trouble once the fight hit the mat. As a reward, “Bam Bam” was thrown in with another prized prospect in Warlley Alves, but Barberena scored the upset once again, weathering an early storm to eventually wear out the Brazilian. Barberena’s upset run stopped with a loss to Colby Covington, but since then, his grinding style and durability have made him a reliable gatekeeper in a deep welterweight division. Barberena finally received some just due as an action fighter in February. Against Vicente Luque, Barberena was willing to keep marching through danger and give as good as he got, as the two traded bombs until the Brazilian felled him in the closing moments of the bout. Four months later, the UFC looks to recapture that magic, as Barberena takes on another action welterweight in Brown.

Potential is the name of the game with Brown, though “Rude Boy” has not developed much over his three and a half years on the UFC roster. Brown was one of the first signings through UFC President Dana White’s suite of reality shows and set the tone for the type of prospect the boss likes: athletic, projectable and quite raw. Brown was signed within two years of his pro debut, and while he has put together some wins over the lower reaches of the UFC roster, most of his fights tend to be a struggle. Brown is fine as a long-range striker, but he still gets hit more than he should and his defensive wrestling remains a liability. Brown can hold his own if he is clinched against the cage, but in open space, he has been a sitting duck for takedowns. As long as the UFC can give Brown a soft landing after every few losses, he has enough athletic talent to hang on the roster. Even so, everything is still about potential more than what Brown has shown to date.

If the UFC is looking to recreate Barberena’s brawl against Luque, this is probably not the right matchup. If this is purely a striking match, it should be a fun back-and-forth affair, but one of the keys to making Barberena’s fight with Luque so fun was that the latter had both the physicality and submission skills to keep things honest and fight back. Brown has neither of those qualities, so even if he can get Barberena in danger, “Bam Bam” should be able to rely on his wrestling as needed. Barberena can probably press those wrestling advantages before things get that far, and even if Brown connects with some hard shots, Barberena has typically shown a solid chin. The pick is Barberena by clear decision.

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