Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Belfort vs. Henderson 3’

---

Bantamweights

Thomas Almeida (19-0) vs Anthony Birchak (12-2)

THE MATCHUP: Elite prospect meets bona fide prospect killer in this thrilling bout.

Birchak’s fighting style is not pretty, but it does not need to be. All-out aggression is the name of the game for “El Toro,” who treats every opponent like a piece of china just waiting to be smashed. Birchak eschews the very notion of distance management, preferring to eat up the distance as fast as he can in order to put knees, fists and elbows on the opponent as often as possible. He is fearsome in the clinch, where he makes up for any holes in technical skill with strength, power and tenacity. From range, Birchak is particularly fond of high-low switch-ups: He will throw knees and kicks and then attack with the same-side hand before he even sets his foot back down. It was a combination of this sort that felled Joe Soto at a UFC Fight Night event in June.

Birchak is also a fairly effective takedown artist, using the aforementioned clinch to look for single-legs, trips and throws, which he can chain together surprisingly well. From top position, Birchak is a mauler, using short elbows to grind his opponent’s face into hamburger. His control is not airtight, but a sharp instinct for transitional fighting makes him dangerous nonetheless; opponents who jump on opportunities to return to their fight often run into hard, accurate strikes along the way, only to wind right back in Birchak’s clinch.

Almeida is similarly aggressive, but there is more polish to his game. Mid-range boxing is Almeida’s strong suit. A potent combination puncher, he composes his attacks brilliantly to open up holes in his opponent’s defense, attacking low and high with both hands. Short upward knees and downward elbows make Almeida a serious threat in the clinch and allow him to dissuade tie-ups and takedown attempts. Though he keeps a tight, high guard, Almeida’s commitment to forward pressure and phone-booth ranges makes him vulnerable to both strikes and takedowns, particularly in the early going. As the fight continues, however, Almeida’s intelligence starts to show, as he figures out how to avoid his opponent’s strengths while enhancing his own advantages.

Almeida is a striker, and he knows it. His focus in grappling exchanges is almost always to return to his feet and create enough distance to resume striking. Almeida does have a sneaky guillotine which he uses as a takedown deterrent; however, if his opponent elects not to tap, the Brazilian never sticks around long enough to play guard.

THE ODDS: Almeida (-420), Birchak (+350)

THE PICK: Almeida is hittable and hurt-able, and Birchak loves to hit and hurt. That alone makes “El Toro” a very live underdog, and I strongly suspect Almeida will find himself in at least one tough spot early. With that being said, Birchak cannot compete with Almeida skill-for-skill, and once the Brazilian adapts and finds his range, the bout will quickly become a contest of fist/elbow/knee versus chin. The pick is Almeida by TKO in round two.

Next Fight » Alex Oliveira vs. Piotr Hallmann