Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Henderson vs. Masvidal’

Welterweights

Yoshihiro Akiyama (14-5) vs Alberto Mina (11-0)

THE MATCHUP: Akiyama gets a relatively soft touch for his return to the land of his forefathers. Unfortunately, Akiyama is no longer the same man that wowed the people of Seoul in 2007, when he knocked out Denis Kang. This should not come as a surprise given Akiyama’s age. “Sexyama” has long been hailed as a judo expert, and his tricky takedown game is about the only thing keeping him competitive in modern MMA. The splendid Harai-makikomi Akiyama hit against Jake Shields at UFC 144 is an excellent example of the black belt’s explosive grappling chops.

As a striker, Akiyama relies on power to get the job done. Despite a stiff jab and a hard right hand, his striking looks remarkably stiff compared to his grappling. Combined with his toughness, Akiyama’s power would be enough to carry him in many fights, but his lack of defense is really the nail in the kickboxing coffin. Akiyama cannot press the action without getting hit, and he cannot defend without backing off and letting up on his attack. The divorce between defense and offense means that more active strikers -- and even fighters like Shields -- can outpoint him on the feet.

There is little in the way of “science” to Mina’s striking game. Left hooks and right hands appear in looping combinations, punctuated by flying knees at range. In his last fight, Mina debuted a bit of head movement to help him avoid the rushing onslaught of Shinsho Anzai, and a vicious bolo punch put away his Japanese foe. Piecemeal as Mina’s striking may be, he is quite accurate and more than durable enough to stay in the fight until he finds a target. At a lanky 6-foot, Mina’s most dangerous weapons are his clinch knees, which tend to sneak in as his opponents are scrambling to defend his takedown attempts.

Mina is a dangerous submission artist, but he lacks the wrestling necessary to consistently get his opponents to the ground. However, he is a dynamic scrambler and uses this ability to wind up on top or on his opponent’s back, even when he is the one being taken down. That scrambling ability carries over into Mina’s submissions, making him particularly dangerous in transitions. Mina has great confidence in his jiu-jitsu, and he aggressively switches from back takes to kimuras, armbars and more.

THE ODDS: Akiyama (-170), Mina (+145)

THE PICK: Mina is hardly a hot prospect at 33, but the beloved “Sexyama,” incredible as it may seem, is a ripe 40 years of age. With his running judo takedowns, Akiyama will almost certainly put Mina on his back, but the “Soldier of God” will not be content to stay passive on the bottom, attacking relentlessly to threaten Akiyama and disrupt his base. On the feet, Akiyama’s only chance is to land a clean shot in the midst of a brawl, and it is hard not to favor the younger, more varied fighter in that kind of slugfest. While Mina was exhausted after his one-round war with Anzai, Akiyama has had stamina issues of his own. The pick is Mina by submission in the third round.

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