Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Jedrzejczyk vs. Penne’

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WELTERWEIGHTS

Peter Sobotta (14-4-1, 1-3 UFC) vs. Steve Kennedy (22-6, 0-0 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: German veteran Sobotta returned to the UFC after a successful six-fight run in the regionals and took a dominating decision over Pawel Pawlak in May 2014. He draws Australia’s Kennedy, who steps in on short notice to replace the injured Sergio Moraes. This is the second time the Sobotta-Moraes booking has fallen through after it was initially scheduled for the Krakow Fight Night in April.

Sobotta is a well-rounded veteran who can do it all in some measure. He is a competent striker who operates behind a crisp southpaw jab and favors a potent left kick that he throws early and often to all three levels. His back-stepping counter right hook is probably his best punch, and he consistently cracks pursuing opponents with it. The real meat of Sobotta’s game, however, lies in the wrestling and grappling phases. He has excellent timing on his takedowns and finishes beautifully, effortlessly turning the corner on his double-legs and running the pipe on his singles. On the mat, the black belt is methodical and consistent, with smooth passes, the occasional strike and a constant hunt for the back, where his rear-naked choke is lethal.

Like Sobotta, Kennedy is experienced and has no real holes in his game. He does not stand out in any particular area, however, and is not a fantastic athlete. The Australian is a decent striker who keeps his left hand low and fires off clean jabs and hooks along with the occasional kick, but he has a tendency to let his chin come up and he is quite hittable. His takedowns are solid and he finishes well, but he has a tendency to shoot from too far away and does not do a great job of setting them up. He is solid on the mat, with good passes and a strong array of topside submissions that speak to his black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

BETTING ODDS: Sobotta (-255), Kennedy (+195)

THE PICK: Particularly with Kennedy coming in on short notice, the matchup favors Sobotta. The Australian might have a slight advantage at range, but unless he can get on top -- unlikely due to Sobotta’s strong takedown defense -- I have a hard time seeing his path to victory. The pick is Sobotta by decision.

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