UFC 140 Preview: The Main Card

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Light Heavyweights
Tito Ortiz (16-9-1, 15-9-1 UFC) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (19-5, 2-2 UFC)

The Matchup: Ortiz came back to earth following his upset of Ryan Bader, as a vicious knee to the body courtesy of Rashad Evans spelled the end for him at UFC 133. Nogueira, meanwhile, has probably had his fill of talented wrestlers after dropping back-to-back decisions to Bader and Phil Davis.

Working in the Brazilian’s favor is that Ortiz can no longer consistently land the powerful double-leg takedown that was nearly automatic in his heyday. Ortiz’s top-notch conditioning is not what it once was, either, as “The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” tends to fade in later rounds, much as he did in a loss to Matt Hamill. With that in mind, the former UFC light heavyweight champion remains a tough out, and the short right hand that set up his submission of Bader demonstrated that anyone has a puncher’s chance.

“Minotoro” did a decent job defending the takedowns of Davis in their UFC Fight Night 24 encounter, so it is unlikely that Ortiz will be able to plant him on the canvas with any regularity. Even if he did, Nogueira has a good submission game from his guard and is fully capable of sweeping and escaping his opponent from the ground. Nogueira’s boxing trumps anything Ortiz can offer on the feet, but he will have to attack more than he did against Davis. In that bout, the Team Nogueira representative was content to sit back and counter. If the former Pride standout feels like he can neutralize Ortiz’s wrestling, perhaps he will be more aggressive.

Ortiz will have to collapse the pocket and force Nogueira into the clinch, where the Brazilian’s punches tend to lose some of their zip. The Team Punishment product is a master of working off the cage, but he will have to be aware of Nogueira’s ability to counter with knees to the body.

The Pick: Evans aside, Ortiz has proven himself to be durable even in defeat, so it is doubtful that any punches from Nogueira will end his night. He will have to connect with something big early to impose his will, however, and Minotoro’s chin will be able to absorb his onslaught. Over the course of 15 minutes, Nogueira will stuff Ortiz’s takedowns while connecting with punches and knees in the clinch to take a clear-cut unanimous decision.

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