UFC 173 ‘Barao vs. Dillashaw’ Preview

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Welterweights

Robbie Lawler (22-10, 7-4 UFC) vs. Jake Ellenberger (29-7, 8-3 UFC)

The Matchup: Heavy hitters with a combined 36 knockouts between them square off here, although Lawler’s stock in the welterweight division is higher than Ellenberger’s at this point.

Lawler was perhaps a few minutes away from capturing the promotion’s vacant welterweight crown at UFC 171, but he faded slightly down the stretch of the final round against Johny Hendricks, ultimately losing a narrow decision. Still, there was plenty to like about the American Top Team product’s performance, as he went toe-to-toe with Hendricks for much of the fight, wobbling him in the third and opening a cut near his eye in the fourth. However, some late clinch work and a takedown ultimately sealed the victory for Hendricks in round five. Considering the narrow nature of the defeat, Lawler could be an impressive victory or two away from another shot at 170-pound gold.

Ellenberger, meanwhile, has lots to prove after an uncharacteristically tentative showing against Rory MacDonald at UFC on Fox 8 in July. The heavy-handed Nebraskan spent the majority of the bout on the end of his opponent’s jab -- a disappointing showing considering the violence he promised during pre-fight promotion. While Ellenberger is one of the few in the division who can come close to matching Lawler in terms of knockout power, his efforts have been largely uneven over the course of his last five bouts. He fatigued late in splitting fights against Diego Sanchez and Martin Kampmann before offering a more measured approach in outpointing Jay Hieron at UFC on FX 5 in October 2012. He seemingly returned to form with a vicious knockout against Nate Marquardt, but then offered the aforementioned dud versus MacDonald.

What it all adds up to is that “The Juggenaut” is going to have a hard time resurrecting his title hopes against a much-improved Lawler. Ellenberger is a talented wrestle-boxer with a solid jab and dangerous countering ability, but the chances he outboxes Lawler are not good. In addition to his well-known power, Lawler has displayed more composure in exchanges in recent outings. Plus, consistent head movement, an ability to roll with punches and a solid jab have made him more versatile overall. Ellenberger is most dangerous in round one, but he can become careless when he blitzes a hurt opponent. Against someone with a chin like Lawler’s, rushing in recklessly at any time could prove disastrous, even if the former EliteXC champion appears dazed. Ellenberger could look to throw more leg kicks, as Lawler refused to check them against Hendricks. The accumulation of those blows might have slowed him down in the fifth round at UFC 171, and Ellenberger should have taken note.

While Ellenberger does not have a great wrestling pedigree, his ability to adapt that part of his game to MMA has been solid. However, since returning to 170 pounds, Lawler has established himself as a difficult foe to grind down. Ellenberger might be able to score some takedowns, but odds are Lawler’s sprawl and butterfly guard will allow him to remain upright for the majority of the bout.

The Pick: Lawler takes it by KO or TKO in round two or three.

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