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Lightweights

Donald Cerrone (22-6-1, 9-3 UFC) vs. Edson Barboza (13-1, 7-1 UFC)

The Matchup: Cerrone might not be on the verge of a lightweight title shot just yet, but after finishes of Evan Dunham and Adriano Martins in his last two outings, it feels like the Jackson-Wink MMA product is putting something big together. When Cerrone has built similar momentum in the past, he has often had his winning streaks halted in jarring fashion. It is important to note that much of Cerrone’s success is based on his mentality. On a good night, “Cowboy” is one of the promotion’s most notorious bonus hunters. On a bad night, he might spend an entire fight playing catch-up after a slow start.

Barboza is an intriguing case because he has been labeled a rising prospect for a few years now, but he has yet to climb into the lightweight division’s top 10. An upset loss against Jamie Varner at UFC 146 certainly slowed his progress some, but the Brazilian has since reeled off three straight wins, including a significant triumph against Danny Castillo at UFC on Fox 9. Against Castillo, some of the same issues that hindered Barboza against Varner surfaced yet again. The Team Alpha Male product pressured Barboza with power punches and appeared to be on the verge of a finish in the opening round. However, Barboza ultimately survived the assault and rallied over the final 10 minutes to capture a split decision.

The fact that hard-punching wrestlers have given Barboza some difficulty reveals at least one key fact: His high-octane kicking game is not as effective when an opponent is moving forward against him. Both he and Cerrone are similar in the fact that much of their offense is based around bone-crushing leg kicks. Barboza, who has a pair of TKO wins due to leg kicks, probably has the edge in sheer power. Cerrone, meanwhile, does a better job at setting up his kicks with punching combinations. Whichever fighter is able to apply pressure and get the other man moving backward will have a distinct advantage.

Cerrone is slightly taller than Barboza, but the Brazilian will have a two-inch reach advantage on fight night. In addition to his leg kicks, Barboza owns a flashy array of spinning back kicks, wheel kicks and roundhouse kicks. His boxing is backed by a solid jab, but he can leave himself vulnerable when he is forced to rely on his hands extensively. Cerrone also has a versatile toolbox of kicks that he can land at various levels, but his hands would seem to be slightly more skilled than Barboza’s. However, the Brazilian often masks his deficiencies with sheer athleticism.

Cerrone’s wrestling is often overlooked, but he might want to keep his adversary guessing with the threat of the takedown -- another way to slow Barboza’s kicking attack.

The Pick: This appears to be an evenly matched fight that could hinge on who lands the first significant blow. From there, the aggressor will be able to have the advantage as the bout unfolds. Cerrone does a better job of controlling the tempo and wins via decision.

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