Preview: ‘The Ultimate Fighter’ 27 Finale

Featherweights
Alex Caceres (13-11) vs. Martin Bravo (11-1)
Odds: Caceres (-130), Bravo (+110)

Caceres has spent nearly his entire career in the UFC, with mediocre results. His 8-9 Octagon record speaks to long experience, inconsistency and a fan-friendly persona and style. Not only has he stuck around the UFC roster despite his middling record, but he continues to get prominent placement on cards. Caceres has long since settled into the role of mid-level action fighter. Despite a credible showing against Yair Rodriguez -- a ballyhooed prospect with the look of a future contender -- the MMA Lab product has generally lost to the upper echelon fighters he’s faced and beaten the lower level ones.

“Bruce Leeroy” is a lanky southpaw with a penchant for unpredictability. He is at his best mixing traditional round kicks to the legs, body and head with punching combinations in close quarters. Caceres is known for his flashy jumping and spinning attacks, but he can sometimes fall in love with them, making them less effective or throwing himself off-balance. His spinning back kick in particular is effective if used sparingly. Caceres likes a back-and-forth fight in the middle of the cage where he has space to work but doesn’t always have to lead or counter. He has had issues with consistent pressure in the past, where his lack of a jab or consistent footwork and spindly frame can see him bullied back to the cage. The Miami native can get in trouble against dedicated counter fighters as well because, though he bounces around and cuts angles at range, he often closes distance in straight lines. Wang Guan made him pay badly twice in the first round of his last fight, running an oncoming Caceres into hard shots. The John Crouch protégé’s hands have improved over his career. His check right hook is a solid weapon against aggressive fighters, and “Bruce Leeroy” can punch in combination well at times, especially when his foe’s back hits the fence. But despite his fun, exaggerated head movement when he’s just focused on defending, his head remains stationary as he throws.

Bravo had an impressive showing on TUF Latin America 3 as an undersized lightweight. His crazy pace, aggressive combination boxing, and takedown ability mixed together to make him a formidable opponent. He methodically and systematically broke down Claudio Puelles in the final, busting up the Peruvian’s nose, attacking the body with hooks, and refusing to take a backwards step. Puelles wilted under the pressure in the second. But Bravo has only fought once in the 20 months since then, getting nuked by a Humberto Bandenay head kick-turned-knee in just 26 seconds last August. The Mexican is only 24; Bravo has time to round out and polish his game. But from what we’ve seen so far, the Entram Gym standout relies on walking through punishment to put a hellacious pace on his opponent. He was billed as a wrestler on the show, but that has not figured into his game much to this point.

If this fight goes to the ground, I would favor Caceres, who is aggressive and more experienced. He has a bad habit of giving up his back if he gets tripped up, but he is a surprisingly effective wrestler, both offensively and defensively. Bravo to this point has shown strong takedown and back-take defense but hasn’t faced much in the way of competition.

The style matchup should play well for Caceres here. He can go through bouts of inactivity, but that shouldn’t be a problem against the aggressive Mexican, who will be trying to stay in his face from the jump. Bravo doesn’t have the best pressure footwork or particularly fast feet. Caceres should be able to keep himself in space and meet Bravo with offense as he walks into range. “Bruce Leeroy” will probably get a few kicks caught and stumble a few times along the way, but he outpoints Bravo, who moves forward all fight but struggles to land consistently.

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