Preview: UFC 197 ‘Jones vs. St. Preux’

Middleweights

Robert Whittaker (15-4) vs Rafael Natal (21-6-1)

THE MATCHUP: The last two men to beat “The Ultimate Fighter 17” finalist Uriah Hall meet in an exciting middleweight showcase.

Since moving up to 185 pounds, Whittaker has looked sensational. Without the weight cut, Whittaker seems more powerful, more durable and more willing to throw. He can get a little too excited at times, leaving himself overextended and open to counters, but for the most part, his newfound aggression only enhances his considerable power and sniper’s timing. In addition to the boxing that has always been his staple, Whittaker also throws a great deal more kicks than he used to. Oblique and side kicks help him to control the distance, and thudding low kicks confuse and weaken the opponent while Whittaker looks for the knockout punch.

Natal is certainly an unlikely contender. At 33 years old, he has more than eight years on Whittaker, and the four knockout losses on his record do not mark him out for greatness. Still, Natal is riding a four-fight winning streak, having beaten a who’s who of middleweight journeyman over the last two years. Natal’s experience and craft will come in handy against Whittaker. Natal has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and a capable wrestling game, but Whittaker is a very good defensive wrestler and a carefully aggressive grappler in his own right. As such, this fight will likely be contested on the feet.

As a striker, Natal lacks Whittaker’s speed and power but makes up for it with craft. Natal moves well from side to side and feeds his opponent a steady diet of jabs while looking to set up more powerful punches and kicks. Natal does have a bad habit of opening himself up after finishing an exchange. This problem persists even after Tim Kennedy punished Natal for it with a knockout punch at UFC “Fight for the Troops 3.”

THE ODDS: Whittaker (-300), Natal (+250)

THE PICK: Natal is a good fighter, but he lacks the dynamism of Whittaker. Without the ability to change the momentum in a single moment, Natal’s defensive liabilities will be ripe for the picking, and there are few fighters keener to land a knockout punch than Whittaker. “The Reaper” wins by KO in the first round.

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