Preview: UFC 299 Prelims

Bantamweights

Kyler Phillips (11-2, 5-1 UFC) vs. #13 BW | Pedro Munhoz (20-8, 10-8 UFC)

ODDS: Phillips (-238), Munhoz (+195)

Munhoz has seemingly been on the verge of a breakout for the majority of his decade-long UFC career, and this fight starts what is probably one last charge up the ladder for “The Young Punisher.” Munhoz worked his way up the ranks with a fairly simple game. As one of the most durable fighters on the roster, he was content to march forward and throw power, mostly in the hopes of luring his opponents into takedown attempts, at which point he would employ one of the most lethal guillotine chokes in the sport. After knockout wins over Bryan Caraway and Cody Garbrandt, Munhoz seemed ready for title contention as a dangerous finisher in all aspects. However, once the Brazilian hit the bantamweight elite, opponents were quite well-prepared. Opponent after opponent looked to outmaneuver Munhoz’s fairly straightforward pressure, and that proved to be a surprisingly low bar to clear at times. It says a lot that even with a focus on fighting against type a diminished Frankie Edgar was able to score the last win of his career by picking apart Munhoz over five rounds. Understandably, Munhoz eventually decided to mix things up, pivoting to a more patient approach; and while it has seemed to work surprisingly well, he has been snakebitten in terms of that change leading to any tangible success. A fight against Sean O’Malley was going well until it ended in a no contest, and after a clear victory over Chris Gutierrez, Munhoz found himself on the losing end of a fight he probably should have won against Marlon Vera. Munhoz could have easily upended the entire bantamweight title picture as it currently exists if he had a bit better luck. Instead, he finds himself trying to defend his ranking against Phillips.

Phillips has won five of his six UFC bouts, but it speaks to the American’s talent that his Octagon campaign thus far feels like a bit of a disappointment. Phillips looked like a prospect to watch through two UFC fights but showed nothing that suggested he would be able to compete in a 2021 booking against Yadong Song, a surging talent who already looked every bit the future title contender. However, “The Matrix” showed up and had the most focused performance of his career, leveraging his speed to outmaneuver Song’s power-heavy approach, mixing in takedowns when needed and seemingly stealing the Chinese standout’s shine as the next great bantamweight contender. However, that still stands out as Phillips’ career peak three years later, despite his ensuing success. Phillips continues to show constant flashes of talent but has not applied his skills nearly as efficiently or consistently as he did in the Song win, resulting in fights that are messier than he need to be, even as he coasts to victory on his natural talent. Given his speed advantage here, there is a decent chance he fights poorly but still walks away with a victory and a ranking. Assuming he shows up in his usual form, Phillips gives his opponents so many opportunities that it is hard not to pick Munhoz, even if it could be a close and ugly fight. The pick is Munhoz via decision.

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