Preview: UFC Fight Night 127 ‘Werdum vs. Volkov’
Edwards vs. Sobotta
Welterweight
Leon Edwards (14-3) vs. Peter Sobotta (17-5-1)
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ANALYSIS: This fight should be entertaining. The 26-year-old Edwards is one of the most criminally overlooked fighters in the UFC, if not all of MMA. In his last three Octagon appearances, he has beaten a steady stream of tough opponents in Albert Tumenov, Vicente Luque and Bryan Barberena, and now the UTC Birmingham product is supplementing his training at the American Kickboxing Academy in San Jose, California. Considering his first pro loss was due to an illegal knee and that he should have won his UFC debut on the scorecards over Claudio Henrique da Silva, the only man to ever beat him “clean” is powerhouse wrestler Kamaru Usman, who is a dreadful style matchup for the Brit.
Sobotta, 31, went 0-3 in his initial UFC tenure in 2009-10. He has gone 9-1-1 since, losing only to Kyle Noke on account of a devastating body kick in his opponent’s native Australia at UFC 193. Since returning to the UFC in May 2014, the Germany-based Pole is 4-1, including a nifty win over Nicolas Dalby before tearing up Ben Saunders with his much-improved standup in May.
That improved striking results from spending much of his time training at Tiger Muay Thai and Phuket Top Team in Thailand. The southpaw has a lancing jab and has discovered a lot of variety in his powerful left hand, which he used to drop Dalby and rock Saunders all over the map. However, at the end of the day and for all his new toys, his bread-and-butter remains his top-position grappling, guard passing and transitions to the back. Ten of the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt’s 17 career wins are by submission, and even in bouts where he has not gotten the tap, he has spent time threatening from back control.
Edwards is an inverse of this. Though he is also a southpaw boxer, he is less active, maintaining his jab and looking for potent left-hand counters. Though he lands roughly as many strikes per minute as he absorbs, he deftly covers up, blocks and rolls with them, seldom getting hit clean, though Barberena floored him with a nasty uppercut. However, when Edwards finds his counters, he lands flush. “Rocky,” however, has developed a very sharp wrestling game, with a variety of takedowns in his arsenal and an ability to sprawl on opponents’ shots when they are forced by his boxing to shoot from the outside. Also, he now has a thirst for back control after picking up rear-naked choke victories; and even in decision wins, he has taken rounds with extended threats on his foes’ backs.
Sobotta is not without hope here, given his striking improvements and overall finishing ability. However, as the more hittable man and natural aggressor, Sobotta’s attack figures to give Edwards exactly the sort of countering opportunities he excels at exploiting. Look for Edwards to grab a unanimous decision in a fun little scrap.
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