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Women’s Flyweights

No. 9 | Viviane Araujo (9-2, 3-1 UFC) vs. No. 8 | Roxanne Modafferi (25-17, 4-5 UFC)

ODDS: Araujo (-345), Modafferi (+285)

Modafferi continues to defy the odds, as 2020 may have been her best year yet inside the Octagon. A pioneer of women’s mixed martial arts, Modafferi’s first run on “The Ultimate Fighter” came in the middle of a six-fight losing streak. As a non-athlete with a grappling-based game that was bringing increasingly diminished returns, there was not an obvious end in sight for Modafferi’s slide. However, “The Happy Warrior” put together one of the more shocking late-career turnarounds in mixed martial arts history, cutting down to flyweight and developing an awkward but effective striking game that suddenly made everything click. She is still nearly always at a clear athletic deficit, but Modafferi has enough veteran craft to more than make up for that gap. A second run on “The Ultimate Fighter” ended just short of women’s flyweight gold, and Modafferi has been content to play spoiler since, with 2020 seeing her score big upsets over Maycee Barber and Andrea Lee. Up next is Araujo, who has also been a pleasant surprise in the division, though obviously with a much shorter path to get there. A career strawweight, Brazil’s Araujo took a late-notice UFC debut up at bantamweight and absolutely tore apart Talita Bernardo; and rather than move back down to 115 pounds, “Vivi” decided to ply her trade at flyweight, where her speed would be much better served. She picked apart Alexis Davis and Montana De La Rosa, but her lone UFC loss thus far was a huge disappointment against Jessica Eye, who made Araujo’s movement-heavy offense look inefficient rather than slick. Like most Modafferi fights, the athleticism gap is a huge concern, particularly since Araujo’s fast hands make her one of the more individually dangerous fighters in the division. However, Modafferi usually finds a way to press her way into the clinch and take things from there, and it is unclear if Araujo has the skill or pure physicality to hold her own once the fight gets there. The pick is Modafferi via decision.

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