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Women’s Strawweights

Felice Herrig (10-6) vs. Kailin Curran (4-2)

THE MATCHUP: Herrig has been away from professional competition since her loss to Paige VanZant in April 2015 -- a period of time in which she battled depression and anxiety. Curran fought through a tough first round to get her first UFC win in December, this after failing in her first two attempts. It would be nice to say that victory in this fight would go to the one who has struggled most, but both women have faced adversity on the road to Chicago. This fight will come down to craft.

At only 25, Curran is a difficult fighter to analyze. We can look at her past achievements, but she has just six pro fights under her belt and enough natural athleticism to enable rapid, unforeseen improvements at any time. Herrig’s game feels far more predictable, having been established over the course of 16 fights and seven years.

What kind of improvements would Curran have to make to capitalize on Herrig’s well-established tendencies? Curran’s style is not dissimilar from that of VanZant, who beat both these women. Skill-wise, however, Curran is a few steps behind. She lacks VanZant’s mobility on the ground and therefore will not be able to safely punish Herrig from top position while she rolls and sweeps and throws up her legs. Like VanZant, Curran’s bulrushes often lead her to the clinch, but she is neither strong enough nor sharp enough to drag Herrig to the floor with impunity.

Herrig has tended to fade in the past. All six of her losses are decisions, and while this speaks to her toughness, it also suggests an inability to claim the momentum of a fight. Two of Herrig’s six decision wins are split verdicts. When she cannot finish her opponent early, she often finds herself in a close fight, with no clear route to victory. Even so, Curran’s two losses are both third-round finishes. She is not exactly a fighter who takes over as the fight wears on, and her lone UFC victory came after a round which her opponent clearly won. Again, Curran will have needed to make some serious improvements since December to beat Herrig, barring some shocking turn of events.

THE ODDS: Herrig (-110), Curran (-110)

THE PICK: Historically, the women who beat Herrig have been physically overpowering (VanZant, Barb Honchak), technically superior (Carla Esparza) or both (Tecia Torres). Curran is certainly aggressive, but she has neither the raw power nor the technical savvy to outwork the veteran Herrig, who will most likely find one of Curran’s long limbs in a scramble and take it home. The pick is Herrig by submission in the second round.

Last Fights » The Prelims