Preview: UFC 301 ‘Pantoja vs. Erceg’

Middleweights

#14 MW | Caio Borralho (15-1, 5-0 UFC) vs. #13 MW | Paul Craig (17-7-1, 9-7-1 UFC)

ODDS: Borralho (-550), Craig (+410)

The UFC has seemingly been high on Borralho for a while, and the Brazilian gets a chance at his biggest win to date in this assignment. Borralho needed two wins to earn a contract on the Contender Series in 2021, which at least gave “The Natural” a better chance to show off his wares, proving himself capable as a powerful striker and a control-heavy wrestler. Once Borralho was in the fold, the UFC featured him prominently in surprisingly quick fashion—his first two fights were co-main events—even if the results weren’t particularly electric, with the Brazilian mostly relying on the grinding parts of his game in order to carve out a path to victory. Things have picked up as Borralho’s moved his way up the ladder, to the point that he’s now quite well-tested. His game still isn’t particularly deep, as he’ll shift between his range striking and wrestling phases, but he can usually pick the right tools to fight behind while making a lot of hay as a powerful athlete. Borralho’s taken care of business on the fringes of the UFC’s middleweight rankings, and he gets his first ranked opponent here in Craig, who’s still looking to carve out his niche at 185 pounds.

Scotland’s Craig had a surprisingly successful career as a light heavyweight despite having a game that was both one-dimensional and highly risky. A submission specialist by nature, Craig has traditionally preferred to put himself into some disadvantageous positions in the hopes of finding something from the bottom. It failed spectacularly at times, but Craig also managed to tap out top fighters such as Magomed Ankalaev, Jamahal Hill and Nikita Krylov, so it was surprising to see him move to a deeper middleweight division in July of last year. Craig had a more coherent game in his middleweight debut against Andre Muniz, playing the bully and applying pressure at times rather than letting his opponent dictate things and hope for the best. However, he already might have hit a clear ceiling in his new division. Fellow standout grappler Brendan Allen handled him in most aspects ahead of a one-sided defeat last November. Borralho will likely wrestle enough to make this interesting given Craig’s preferred phase of fight, but the Brazilian should be able to survive on the ground and slowly work his way to a clear win. The pick is Borralho via third-round stoppage.

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Pantoja vs. Erceg
Martinez vs. Aldo
Petrino vs. Smith
Pereira vs. Potieria
Borralho vs. Craig
The Prelims