Women’s Strawweights
Xiaonan Yan (9-1) vs. Syuri Kondo (6-1): Japan’s Kondo came into the UFC with some notoriety through kickboxing and pro wrestling, but her tenure thus far has been a mixed bag. Kondo managed to pick apart the inexperienced Chanmi Jeon without much trouble, but a quick knockout loss to Poliana Botelho in May served as a reminder: As technically sound as Kondo is, her lack of athleticism is often going to make things an uphill battle. She returns for her third UFC fight against China’s Yan, who is coming off of an impressive win over Viviane Pereira. Admittedly, a lot of that had to do with Pereira’s odd choice to stand with the much longer Yan, but in general, Yan is a strong athlete with good size who has a fundamental level of competency everywhere, like a lot of Chinese fighters on this card. It is hard to feel strongly either way about this one, but this does feel like another fight where Kondo’s lack of athleticism is going to give her trouble. It probably will not be a blowout loss like the Botelho fight, but Yan figures to hit the harder shots and set the quicker pace to win rounds. The pick is Yan via decision. ODDS: Yan (-430), Kondo (+345)Advertisement
Welterweights
Kenan Song (13-3) vs. Alex Morono (14-5): Song has been a pleasant surprise. The UFC picked him up despite the fact that he was coming off of two losses, and he has rewarded the promotion’s faith with two wins in two bouts, albeit against weak competition. Song looks to make it three-for-three against Morono, who has had an up-and-down UFC career since debuting with an upset win over Kyle Noke. Morono ostensibly has a Brazilian jiu-jitsu background, but he has gotten by mostly as a wild, aggressive striker. That should make for a fun bout against Song, who is competent everywhere and a tank of an athlete with some knockout power. Morono is the quicker fighter, so he should be able to overwhelm Song with volume as the fight goes on, but he is defensively open enough that Song cracking him with a knockout punch would not be shocking. Still, the pick is Morono to pour on the pressure and score the third-round stoppage. ODDS: Song (-125), Morono (+105)Women’s Flyweights
Yanan Wu (9-2) vs. Lauren Mueller (5-0): The UFC’s 2017 debut in Shanghai was mostly a good night for Chinese fighters, but one of the disappointments of the card was Wu, as the bantamweight prospect mostly got outwrestled by Gina Mazany. This time around, Wu drops to flyweight to try her luck against Mueller, a solid striker who has impressed in her two fights under the Zuffa banner, beating Kelly Velasco on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series before debuting in the UFC proper with a solid win over Shana Dobson. Wu dropping to 125 pounds is intriguing. She had her moments against Mazany strength-wise and appears to be extremely tough, so there is a chance she can simply wade forward through her opponent’s offense to grind out wins at flyweight. However, Mueller has looked like a strong enough athlete that I foresee another frustrating night for Wu, who also appears to gas out badly when the fight does not go her way. The pick is Mueller via decision. ODDS: Mueller (-470), Wu (+375)Light Heavyweights
Yaozong Hu (3-1) vs. Rashad Coulter (8-4): It has been a tough UFC run for Coulter. The Texas native came into the UFC with some toughness and a kill-or-be-killed style, but unfortunately for Coulter, three UFC fights have mostly gone the latter way. Coulter’s debut against Chase Sherman was a memorable back-and-forth brawl, but overall, he has just been overwhelmed by better athletes, and his last fight against Chris de la Rocha was a damning indictment of his gas tank. We will see if things go any better at light heavyweight, though Coulter faces a fellow converted heavyweight. Hu got the late-notice call in 2017 when the UFC needed a Chinese heavyweight, and while he is aggressive and a solid athlete, he quickly ran out of energy against Cyril Asker in his Octagon debut. This fight is a coin flip, and both guys are tough enough that this may wind up going into the deeper rounds. A first-round knockout is possible, but the call is for this to devolve into the best-worst kind of gassed slugfest. The pick is Coulter via decision, mostly due to having better experience. ODDS: Coulter (-175), Hu (+155)Women’s Strawweights
Weili Zhang (17-1) vs. Jessica Aguilar (20-6): When the World Series of Fighting signed Aguilar in 2014, it seemed to be the final tipping point towards the UFC adding the women’s strawweight division. She was the consensus best 115-pound fighter in the world at the time, and someone else picking her up was the impetus the UFC needed to get things in motion and essentially sign every other high-level fighter in the division. Aguilar did eventually make her way to the UFC, but it has been a tough run. She looked physically overmatched against Claudia Gadelha and Cortney Casey-Sanchez and suffered a severe knee injury in between those fights. Aguilar did rebound with a win over Jodie Esquibel in July but faces another tough test in Zhang. The top Chinese prospect quickly became one of the best unsigned fighters in China and at strawweight, owing to a string of 16 straight finishes that was only snapped with her UFC debut -- a decision win over Danielle Taylor. Zhang will probably get back to her finishing ways here. Aguilar overcomes her lack of athleticism with technical savvy, but that has looked increasingly ineffective, and Zhang’s relentless and powerful pressure should figure to overwhelm Aguilar at some point. The pick is Zhang via second-round stoppage. ODDS: Zhang (-420), Aguilar (+335)Bantamweights
Pingyuan Liu (12-5) vs. Martin Day (8-2): Liu is another Chinese prospect to watch. He did not pop as anything too exceptional in his regional fights against overmatched competition, but he had a shockingly strong performance in his UFC debut, knocking off solid veteran Damian Stasiak. It feels like a broken record with a lot of these Chinese fighters, but Liu is another example of the higher baseline of competency from that country in recent years. There is no one standout skill that he possesses, but he is a solid athlete who is capable of holding his own anywhere. He faces an interesting test in the debuting Day, a rangy striker who has put together an undefeated 2018 after suffering a narrow loss on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. Day should present some interesting challenges, given his length on the feet and his trickiness on the ground, but Stasiak presented somewhat similar challenges and Liu managed to hit and physically overwhelm him. This should be a fun scrap, but Liu’s physicality should lead him to the decision win. ODDS: Liu (-250), Day (+210)Middleweights
Kevin Holland (12-4) vs. John Phillips (21-7): It is unclear why this fight is taking place in Beijing, but it should provide some dumb fun. Holland’s loss to Thiago Santos was a master class in entertainment over effectiveness. Holland always fights with more swagger than he has earned, but the Santos fight saw him try a whole bunch of low-percentage stuff while giving running commentary throughout the bout. Thankfully, Phillips will not indulge him in any of that grappling nonsense. The Welshman looks to throw winging power punches first, second and third, and a quick submission loss to Charles Byrd in March showed why that is probably his best strategy. This can go one of two ways, depending on how crazy Holland feels. He can either go the super-aggressive route, which could open him up for a knockout, or this could be a bout where he is content to use his reach advantage and showboat as he keeps Phillips at bay. The latter feels correct, and given that Phillips has not been knocked out in over a decade, the pick is Holland via decision. ODDS: Holland (-420), Phillips (+335)Bantamweights
Louis Smolka (13-5) vs. Sumudaerji Sumudaerji (8-1): Smolka’s career crashed and burned on the way out of the UFC. A former flyweight contender, Smolka suffered an upset loss to Brandon Moreno that sent him into a tailspin, as his lack of high-level athleticism suddenly came back to bite him against a string of stronger grapplers. However, Smolka’s redemption story has a happy ending, as the Hawaiian has overcome an alcohol addiction and earned his way back to the Octagon, this time at bantamweight. Smolka takes on Chinese prospect Sumudaerji, who makes for an interesting style matchup. Sumudaerji is lanky himself, has a somewhat similar game to Smolka and may be the better athlete. Still, Smolka has way more experience and way more tricks up his sleeve, so even if a non-athlete moving up to 135 pounds is a bit concerning, the pick is Smolka via second-round submission. ODDS: Smolka (-225), Sumudaerji (+185)Related Articles
