Preview: UFC Fight Night 176 ‘Overeem vs. Sakai’

Lightweights

Thiago Moises (13-4) vs. Jalin Turner (9-5)

ODDS: Moises (-175), Turner (+155)

This should be a fun test for each of these under-the-radar lightweight prospects. California’s Turner has a ridiculously high ceiling, as he is a gigantic lightweight who, when things are clicking, is absolutely beautiful to watch as a sharp knockout artist. However, he is also firmly in the phase of figuring out things, owing to how raw he was when the UFC brought him in. Defensive wrestling and grappling in remain a concern, particularly after his 2019 loss to Matt Frevola in a fight where the Long Islander was able to control the fight on the mat. To his credit, Turner seems to be working on that aspect of his game, but what he flashed against Josh Culibao in February was more offensive control and some tricky submissions rather than anything that would help him survive against stronger wrestlers. That is where Moises steps in. Both men are 25 years old, but while Turner is all upside and potential, Moises came into the UFC as much more of a complete product. Moises can do a little bit of everything and has power behind what he does, but he is hurt by the fact that there is not much shock or athletic burst in his game. When opponents like Beneil Dariush or Damir Ismagulov can neutralize his wrestling, the Brazilian becomes a one-note striker who cannot do enough to win a fight. His last bout, a win over Michael Johnson, showed the pros and cons of both men; the first round saw Johnson keep Moises at bay as the longer and quicker fighter, but the second saw Moises sell out on his grappling and score a submission while Johnson completely imploded. Johnson’s ability to keep Moises at range raises some concerns given Turner’s considerable reach, but again, Moises at least showed the ability to realize that things were not going well and to press his advantages. If things follow a similar blueprint here, the fight should turn as soon as Moises realizes he can outwrestle Turner and control the fight. The pick is Moises via decision.

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