Preview: UFC on ABC 7 ‘Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov’

Lightweights

Joel Alvarez (20-3, 5-2 UFC) vs. Elves Brener (16-4, 3-1 UFC)

ODDS: Alvarez (-185), Brener (+154)

This should be a fun encounter between two overachievers. Brener might have been the UFC’s most surprising success story of 2023, since expectations were quite low for the Brazilian ahead of his late-notice debut. He didn’t look particularly dynamic on his regional film and was drawing a tough matchup against Zubaira Tukhugov. However, Brener wound up grinding out a controversial decision victory through sheer aggression, and from there, he kept ignoring the proverbial memo that he was supposed to lose. Brener’s technique can be sloppy and he isn’t much of an athlete, but he’s dogged and durable enough to keep charging forward and making things happen, which included knockouts of Guram Kutateladze and Kaynan Kruschewsky to build on the Tukhugov win. Even Brener’s first UFC loss in May against Myktybek Orolbai saw him continue to impress. Brener got controlled early by a grinder who’s making his name as one of lightweight division’s best prospects but still managed to turn things around in the back half of the fight to nearly steal another victory. Brener looks to get back in the win column against Alvarez, who’s back in action after over a year on the shelf.

It was easy to write Alvarez off ahead of his UFC debut in 2019, since “El Fenomeno” mostly feasted on a weak level of competition on the Spanish regional scene. After an unsuccessful promotional debut against Damir Ismagulov, it became apparent that Alvarez could make his game translate from that regional level to better competition. Massive for the division at 6-foot-3—enough so that he has had continuous problems making weight—Alvarez leverages his length to try and force his opponents into shooting takedowns, at which point he has proven himself to be a venomous submission threat from his back. Only two opponents have been able to blow Alvarez’s game wide open: Ismagulov by staying comfortable and outstriking Alvarez from range and Arman Tsarukyan by mauling him with one of the division’s best top games. A surprisingly vast swath of opposition has fallen right into the Spaniard’s traps, either getting overwhelmed on the feet or diving right into a submission. This fight comes down almost purely to Brener’s ability to survive, since his all-offense style is going to give Alvarez a lot of opportunities to hunt for a finish. He’ll almost surely clamp a deep submission or two onto Brener at some point, but it’s unclear whether or not he can actually finish the job. Alvarez is probably the smart choice, but that’s usually the case for most Brener opponents, and the Brazilian has earned enough benefit of the doubt when it comes to his ability to exceed expectations. The pick is Brener via decision.

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Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Magomedov vs. Oleksiejczuk
Figueiredo vs. Vera
Chiesa vs. Ferguson
Dern vs. Godinez
Alvarez vs. Brener
The Prelims