Preview: UFC on ESPN 52 ‘Dariush vs. Tsarukyan’

Lightweights

Joaquim Silva (12-4, 5-4 UFC) vs. Clay Guida (38-23, 18-17 UFC)

ODDS: Silva (-340), Guida (+270)

Now over 17 years removed from his UFC debut, Guida just keeps chugging along. Guida was one of the most exciting fighters of the late-2000s, owing to his ability to set a pace and inhuman durability, which figured to catch up to him at some point. While “The Carpenter” has obviously slowed down a bit from his peak, he has held up much better than even his most optimistic fans would have thought. Guida is not offensively potent by 2023 standards, but he is still nearly impossible to knock out while being committed to pace and activity for 15 minutes, forcing opponents to keep up without burning themselves out. It has run Guida into some clear losses—particularly thanks to his penchant to still dive into submissions—but usually results in his eking out a victory per year, whether via comeback against Leonardo Santos or simply by outpacing Scott Holtzman.

It is not a complete guarantee that Silva can thread that needle, but the Brazilian is a solid fighter with the expected physical advantages. Following the tradition of Brazilian grapplers who would rather just knock somebody out, “Netto BJJ” was gaining some momentum as an engaging action fighter until his career stalled out for another three years due to inactivity. From 2019-22, Silva’s lone fight was a stunning 37-second knockout loss to Ricky Glenn. However, he rebounded with a victory and acquitted himself well in a seemingly-unwinnable fight against Arman Tsarukyan in June. Silva was seemingly the only man willing to step up and take the fight on late notice, and he was at least able to drag Tsarukyan into the third round before getting finished. Silva is not so committed to aggression that a win is a guarantee, but he should have the grappling chops to make Guida’s wrestling a non-starter and should land hard enough shots to win rounds, even if the Chicagoan still figures to drag him into a tough fight. The pick is Silva via decision.

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Dariush vs. Tsarukyan
Turner vs. Green
Font vs. Figueiredo
Brady vs. Gastelum
Soriano vs. Stoltzfus
Silva vs. Guida
The Prelims