Preview: UFC 197 ‘Jones vs. St. Preux’

Here is where I designate my special picks for this card, for degenerate gamblers and all manner of hardcore fight fans who just cannot seem to squeeze enough fight analysis into the day:

***

Legend

BEST VALUE: This fighter’s chances of winning are far greater than the betting lines suggest. Bang for your buck.

Advertisement

CAN’T MISS: My pick for “Fight of the Night,” though not necessarily the kind of slobberknocker that usually earns that honor. Whether technical masterpiece or mutually assured destruction, this bout should be well worth the price of admission.

LIVE DOG: This fighter should probably be at even odds or better, but for whatever reason, he or she is not. Everyone loves an underdog story, but only when the underdog wins.

SURE THING: The lock. If any fight on this card is predetermined, it is this one. The only question: If he or she was always going to win, does the victor still have free will?

SMOKE BREAK: Don’t smoke, kids, but for those of you who can’t resist lighting up mid-event, it is probably safe to do so during this marvel of matchmaking.

***

LIVE DOG: Efrain Escudero. I have no clue why Escudero is valued at +305 against Kevin Lee. Escudero is one of the craftiest, most enduring fighters in a division where hanging around for even five years is an accomplishment. Add to that the fact that Escudero has never been KO’d, despite fighting a veritable murderer’s row of opponents throughout his long career. Meanwhile, Lee was just starched by a fighter not known for his knockout power in Leonardo Santos. Lee probably deserves to be the favorite, but these odds are a little crazy.

BEST VALUE: Chris Kelades. He is just one of many tempting underdogs on this card, alongside Escudero, whose odds are even longer, and Edson Barboza, who I actually picked to win. At +180, however, Kelades strikes the perfect balance between betting odds and likelihood of victory. Sergio Pettis can be rattled, and he can be hurt. He has a tendency to lose focus as the fight wears on, while Kelades only gets stronger and more determined. Kelades knows he is an underdog, and that could very well fuel him onward to an upset win.

SURE THING: Jon Jones. Surprised? Of course not.

CAN’T MISS: Barboza vs. Anthony Pettis. Two of the most explosive, dynamic and skilled strikers in all of MMA meet, with serious narrative weight. Can Pettis get back on the title track or is it finally time for Barboza to shine? This fight delivers on every level.

SMOKE BREAK: Escudero vs. Lee. I am definitely into this fight, but it stands a very real chance of being, well, dull. Unless you share my strange affinity for journeymen and derailed prospects, you could stand to DVR this one.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.