Preview: UFC 300 Prelims

Lightweights

#14 LW | Bobby Green (31-15-1, 12-10-1 UFC) vs. Jim Miller (37-17, 26-16 UFC)

ODDS: Green (-185), Miller (+154)

Miller competing on both UFC 100 and UFC 200 was a fun footnote, but when Miller started talking about making it to UFC 300 for a potential retirement fight, that seemed like a bit of a pipe dream. Miller’s UFC 200 win over Takanori Gomi broke one of the roughest stretches of Miller’s long career, suggesting the beloved vet was starting to slow down for good in his mid-30s. As it turns out, Miller had been fighting with an undiagnosed case of Lyme disease and snapped back into form once that was treated; and while Miller still has a clear ceiling against the top half of the UFC’s lightweight division, he’s still quite capable of walloping a variety of flawed veterans and prospects that come across his path. In fact, Miller is cresting to the point that UFC 300 will no longer be his retirement fight. Now the UFC’s all-time fights leader, Miller is riding a run of five wins in his last six fights. While Miller has typically relied on early finishes to find most of that success, he’s coming off of what might be his most consistent performance in years—an extended beating of Gabriel Benitez in January that Miller ended in the third round. Miller could even find his way back into the UFC’s rankings with a win here against Green, comparatively the younger and fresher fighter in this matchup despite his own decade-plus path to fan-favorite status.

Green had a prolific regional career as a young prospect before even making it to Strikeforce, which in turn led him to come over into the UFC in 2013. “King” impressed early. A 2014 split decision win over Josh Thomson was a bit controversial, but it marked Green’s fourth straight victory to remain undefeated under the UFC banner and get him to the fringes of title contention. But everything went south from there. After a loss to Edson Barboza, Green spent about half a decade in the wilderness thanks to a combination of injuries and personal issues that kept him outside of the cage. And things didn’t even go particularly well for Green whenever he did fight. Judges refused to reward Green’s slick and counter-heavy style on the scorecards, resulting in a string of controversial losses that frustrated Green to the point that he teased retirement. But surprisingly, Green was an unlikely beneficiary of the UFC’s pandemic-era scheduling in 2020. Healthy for the first time in a long while and willing to step in on quick turnarounds, Green kept up an active schedule and just kept winning, even racking up three victories in three months at one point during the year. By the time the UFC started back up on the road, Green was firmly in beloved fan favorite territory, and the positive vibes haven’t really come down since, win or lose. Green’s found a ceiling somewhere around the Top 15 of the lightweight division, and there are some signs that he’s slowing down in his late 30s. Green’s attempted to pivot to a more power-heavy style recently to try and stave that off, and while that’s paid off at times, it’s also left him open to eat some brutal knockouts in return. That’s probably Miller’s path to victory here, given that Green is still a slow starter that typically needs to work his way into a fight while Miller’s usually been the opposite. There’s a decent chance that Miller can find that quick finish, but the bet here is that Green survives and these two put on a war that sees Green take things over late. The pick is Green via third-round stoppage.

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