Opinion: Fighting for Money

This past weekend, top heavyweight Tom Aspinall returned from a knee injury to demolish veteran grappler Marcin Tybura in 73 seconds. A 6-foot-5, 250-plus-pound fighter with excellent footwork who moves as fast and fluidly as some middleweights, the Englishman has similarities to Ciryl Gane, except with one of the best grappling games in the division. Talks soon arose about whether he should get a crack at UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones. Another candidate to face Jones is Sergei Pavlovich, a knockout artist comparable to Francis Ngannou. Most recently, Pavlovich bludgeoned the same Curtis Blaydes against whom Aspinall suffered his injury last year. In the lowest-skill weight class in MMA ,where there are often no good title contenders, the UFC has two excellent ones in Aspinall and Pavlovich. Better yet, both are fairly young, being 30 and 31, respectively. So which one will Jones fight? Why, neither of them! The reason is simple; at least when it comes to fighting, Jones is smart.

Let's step back for a moment and consider what the point of fighting itself is. Generally, there are three possibilities: fighting for money, fighting for sport, and finally, fighting for one's life. While the last seems overly dramatic nowadays, in the very early years of the UFC there was still a small hint of that. However, fighting is now largely a combination of sport and money, which are different from one another. Sport is about determining who is the best competitor within the rules. It doesn't matter whether one fighter is less exciting or popular. Entertainment, however, is about impressing as many viewers as possible, and what better measure than the amount of money a match generates? This is a dominant consideration for the UFC and its fighters alike. Fighters primarily compete to make large sums of money, not glory, legacy, or to prove they're the best.

However, the shrewder fighters aren't just thinking of making a lot of money on their next fight, but on all their fights after that—and better yet, in their post-retirement career. They want to keep their profile and public perception strong. Thus, they want to make the most amount of money with the minimum amount of risk. Now, let's be clear. None of these fighters are “scared” of one another, despite frequent accusations of such. Jones isn't remotely scared of either Aspinall or Pavlovich. However, fighters are rational beings, not psychotically brave lunatics. Well, except for maybe someone like Kazushi Sakuraba.

Now, let's consider Jones and where he is at present. In his prime in the early to mid 2010s, he might well have been the greatest, most unbeatable fighter MMA has ever seen, but what about more recently? In his last two fights before winning the heavyweight title against Gane, Jones faced Thiago Santos and Dominick Reyes in defenses of his UFC light heavyweight title. He took a split decision against a Santos that was fighting on one good leg after Round 1 in a fight that many, myself included, thought he had lost. Even worse was the Reyes fight, a robbery where the vast majority, myself again included, thought he lost the first three rounds. Moreover, Reyes completely outstruck Jones, landing at will with punches and even hurting him in the fourth round. Jones was only able to win Rounds 4 and 5 when he started wrestling effectively.

Suddenly, it becomes clearer. Jones famously declined facing Jan Blachowicz after the Pole became champion by knocking out Reyes in the second round in late 2020. And why wouldn't he? Sure, Jones might win, but everyone expected him to, and Blachowicz was little-known as champions go. Meanwhile, Blachowicz had knocked out the same Reyes who had dominated Jones in the striking, and was a better wrestler than Reyes who would be more difficult to take down himself. Blachowicz had even dominated a fighter with a reasonably similar style to Jones in Israel Adesanya for all five rounds. In other words, this was the ultimate example of a high-risk, low-reward match-up.

Similarly, why the hell would Jones face either Pavlovich or Aspinall now? If Reyes badly outstruck a 32-year-old Jones, what would Pavlovich do to a 36-year-old Jones? Pavlovich is vastly harder to take down, too. This is the same reason Jones declined fighting Francis Ngannou all over again. Aspinall is a better matchup for Jones than Pavlovich, which is probably why Jones even bothered tweeting back at him, but it's still no picnic. Jones would have no grappling edge against Aspinall and might even be at a disadvantage. Aspinall's boxing is nowhere near the level of Pavlovich's, but he does have an outstanding close-range elbow, a distance where Jones often likes to operate with muay thai striking. Thus, Jones would have to stay on the outside and win a point fight with kicks. A possible scenario, but a difficult one to do for 25 minutes against a significantly younger man, with plenty of accompanying danger.

Far more appetizing is Jones’ upcoming fight at UFC 295 against Stipe Miocic, a vastly bigger name whom Jones will have a large advantage over. Miocic will be 41 years old by then, and hasn't fought in almost three years, since he was knocked out by Ngannou for the title. Going one fight before that, a Miocic four days shy of turning 38 years old looked much slower, less active, and tentative in his third fight against Cormier, even if he won, courtesy of his 41-year-old foe being even more removed from his best years. A 41-year-old Miocic may well be a shadow of his former self. If his speed and reactions are diminished, he will simply have no chance of catching Jones, whose sense of distance, movement, and defense, while also not what they were in his prime, all remain very good. Thus, this is the perfect fight for Jones. Low risk, high reward.

Do I blame Jones for this? Not a bit! The UFC uses fighters as disposable bodies and pays them a pittance—13%, according to the latest independent reports—of total revenue. Fighters should look out for themselves and pick beneficial matchups as much as they can. Why else do you think so many lightweights have called out Paddy Pimblett? The alternative is being Tony Ferguson, a loyal soldier who did everything and anything for the UFC and was shafted for it, never getting the promised title opportunity nd huge payday. The goal is to fight for the most money with the least risk, and that's why Jones will never face either Aspinall or Pavlovich.