Opinion: Moving on Up

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This week, former Ultimate Fighting Championship lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos announced his intention to move up 15 pounds to welterweight, joining Donald Cerrone, who he thrashed in 66 seconds in a title defense 13 months ago.

Citing new challenges and the severity of his current weight cut, Dos Anjos is an interesting addition in the increasingly large group of fighters who have made the call to move up as of late. While his skill could easily carry him to the upper echelon of the division, just how far he can go is a bit of a question mark compared to fighters who have had success moving up.

The obvious comparison, for the aforementioned reasons, is Cerrone, who moved up to welterweight several weeks after their title fight and quickly became a top contender. Cerrone, however, has significant height and reach over Dos Anjos. That gives him an immediate advantage with getting into range that Dos Anjos won’t have. While Cerrone does look slightly skinny compared to his opponents at 170, he hasn’t been bullied around at all, and, if anything, looks stronger without the big weight cut, making greater use of his underrated takedown game.

That said, there are some factors that make it difficult to determine just how much Cerrone going on the run of his career has to do with moving up. Cowboy going to welterweight coincided with the switch to Brandon Gibson as his head coach. Seemingly almost overnight, his boxing, always the biggest weakness in his skill set, improved dramatically, both in terms of his hands and his footwork. Regardless, he’s looking as good as he ever has, the question is just how much of it is the move to 170. Either way, it’s been a big success, to the point he could easily be slotted into a title shot at a moment’s notice and be considered deserving.

Dustin Poirier, who moved from 145 to 155 after being knocked out by Conor McGregor, is a fairly unique case. He was a fairly big, albeit young, lightweight who moved down when he got the opportunity to fight Josh Grispi, then a top contender, as a late replacement. He won, and he became a consistent top 10 fighter, but it was in spite of him cutting way too much weight. At 155, his punching power was noticeably more potent, and he made quicker improvements without having to devote so much of his training camps to crash dieting. There aren’t a ton of lessons to be learned from his moves, as his initial trip to 145 was under such weird circumstances, so there’s not much to say about him other than “don’t cut too much weight.” So far, McGregor, who wanted to debut in the UFC at 155 but started at 145 as a favor to management so as to get the division more attention, appears to be a similar case, succeeding in spite of pushing his weight cuts way too far.

The best comparisons for Dos Anjos are most likely Robert Whitaker and, to a lesser extent (but only because he just started back in the division) Kelvin Gastelum at middleweight. They took different paths in moving up: Whitaker felt drained, and he didn’t take shots as well at welterweight, while Gastelum has had issues making 170. Neither was an especially big 170 pounder by modern standards, and Gastelum in particular is lacking in reach in 185, though Whittaker isn’t especially far ahead of him in that regard. Whittaker makes up for it with strong takedown defense and a striking style that gets every potential millimeter out of his reach. Gastelum has relied more on his speed and in and out movement at 185, without the kicks that Whittaker uses to fight longer. While Gastelum’s win over Tim Kennedy was impressive and he’s the favorite against Vitor Belfort, neither has much reach on him, so while his prospects look good, there’s no real indication how he’d do against the biggest fighters in the division. Still, with his style and how sharp he looked against Kennedy, there’s certainly good reason to be optimistic.

Gastelum, Dos Anjos’ former teammate, is likely the closest analogue to try to use to project how he will do when he moves up. They’re not the same fighter, but they’re Rafael Cordeiro-trained pressure fighters (even if Dos Anjos is done with Kings MMA) lacking in height and reach for their division. If Gastelum continues to carve out an identity as an elite middleweight, then Dos Anjos may not be far behind at welterweight. If nothing else, if he picks up some good wins, it’s a lot easier to stay relevant at 170 with the occasional loss or two than it is at 155, where falling out of relevance is the norm for former champions.