Preview: UFC 277 ‘Pena vs. Nunes 2’

UFC 277 certainly sits in the second tier of Ultimate Fighting Championship pay-per-view events in 2022, but the promotion’s return to Dallas on Saturday still features an intriguing five-fight main card at the American Airlines Center. The headliner will see a rematch of one of the biggest upsets in history, as Julianna Pena looks to secure a second straight win over Amanda Nunes, who suddenly needs to prove something while trying to regain her women’s bantamweight championship. From an action standpoint, flyweights do the heavy lifting: Brandon Moreno and Kai Kara France rematch one another for the interim title in what stands out as the clear best fight on the bill, while an Alexandre Pantoja-Alex Perez pairing figures to provide some guaranteed entertainment. The heavier weight classes fill out the picture. Derrick Lewis looks to stay relevant against Sergei Pavlovich in a heavyweight showcase, while the Magomed Ankalaev-Anthony Smith battle at 205 pounds could earn the winner a light heavyweight title shot.

Now to the UFC 277 “Pena vs. Nunes 2” preview:

UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship

C | Julianna Pena (11-4, 7-2 UFC) vs. #1 WBW | Amanda Nunes (21-5, 14-2 UFC)

ODDS: Nunes (-275), Pena (+230)

When Pena got the call as Nunes’ next title challenger, it seemed to be the clear sign that “Lioness”—the consensus greatest female mixed martial artist of all time—had cleared out both the women’s bantamweight and featherweight divisions. Frankly, Pena had not been all that impressive in years. Since her 2019 return from pregnancy, her few performances were marked by a lack of the aggression that made her an interesting prospect, and she had all of a one-fight winning streak leading up to the title challenge. Still, there were some signs that “The Venezuelan Vixen” could be a sneakily tough matchup for Nunes. The Brazilian’s main issue throughout the years has been managing her gas tank, so between Pena’s durability and general doggedness, there was a chance the challenger could find some success if the fight went into deeper waters, provided she could successfully absorb an early beating. That all happened, but it was still shocking to see things actually go so far off the rails in practice. For one thing, the first round was indeed some brutal one-way traffic in Nunes’ favor, with her on the verge of finishing Pena multiple times and dominating in every phase of the fight. While it was assumed that Pena’s narrow chance at victory, if any, would come later, it took all of one hard round for Nunes to look absolutely exhausted. By the time the second period started, she had little answer for whatever Pena brought to the table, giving the underdog a shockingly simple path to a submission victory. It is a weird fight to look at in the aftermath. Again, the dynamic that Pena could outlast Nunes was not entirely unexpected, but the degree to which things turned so quickly and so brutally is hard to make sense of going forward. Does Nunes really only have one round of hard cardio left in her as a bantamweight at this point, or did things on an “off night” fall just right for Pena to slip through an opening and score the upset? Like the first fight, Nunes’ gas tank is still the biggest factor in this fight. For as long as Nunes is looking close to full strength, she can lay an absolute beating on the bantamweight champion, but she looked shockingly ineffective once her cardio had been sapped. There are a lot of red flags that suggest Pena could win this rematch in much the same fashion. Their first fight was Nunes’ first cut down to 135 pounds in roughly two years after defending her featherweight title, and it was made even more worrisome after a 2021 bout with COVID-19. Even if Nunes is recovered from those issues, there is still the concern that she may overcompensate here. Her 2017 rematch with Valentina Shevchenko stands out. After having nearly dropped their first fight due to cardio issues, Nunes came in with an approach that was cautious to the point of near-ineffectiveness. While things have gotten to the point that a Pena victory would be nowhere near shocking, the skill gap still means Nunes deserves the clear benefit of the doubt, even if it is difficult to have much faith in her. The pick is Nunes via second-round stoppage.

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Moreno vs. France
Pavlovich vs. Lewis
Pantoja vs. Perez
Ankalaev vs. Smith
The Prelims