Preview: UFC 306 ‘O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili’

UFC 306 on Saturday provides plenty of intrigue, and for once, that does not entirely have to do with the proceedings inside the cage. The Ultimate Fighting Championship finally plans to get out of the box with its production by running the Sphere in Las Vegas, and it looks to be an ambitious one-off project due to the work needed to pull it off and the excessive costs that have made headlines ahead of the show. That alone provides reason to tune in, but the top few fights sell themselves to an extent, particularly the main event. Sean O’Malley seemingly arrived as not just a champion but an elite fighter with a complete performance in his first title defense, but Merab Dvalishvili is the first of what figures to be many tough challengers for the bantamweight belt. Beyond that, there is the long-overdue trilogy fight between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko for the women’s flyweight title, and an intriguing featherweight showcase pitting divisional stalwart Brian Ortega against recent arrival Diego Lopes. Add in some fun fights to open up the main card, and there is not much to complain about.

Now to the UFC 306 “O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili” preview:

UFC Bantamweight Championship

#6 P4P | Sean O'Malley (18-1, 10-1 UFC) vs. #1 BW | Merab Dvalishvili (17-4, 10-2 UFC)

ODDS: O’Malley (-135), Dvalishvili (+114)

UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!
O’Malley’s rise has felt somewhat preordained, at least promotionally, but he has fully lived up to the hype. Now that he’s champion, it’s time for “Suga” to start making his case for greatness with a tough test here. O’Malley was a clear standout on the first edition of Dana White’s Contender Series back in 2017, showing some potential as an exciting striker with some charisma. The UFC quickly decided it was in the O’Malley business, slotting him in high card placements that were above the level of his accomplishments. O’Malley looked solid in his first few appearances, but then disaster struck in his win over Andre Soukhamthath, as he was lucky to survive to a decision victory after suffering a major foot injury late in the fight. O’Malley was then a forgotten man for about two years, owing to both his injury recovery and drug testers railroading his career over a minor issue, but on the plus side, he did appear to put the time off to good use, looking sharper than ever and absolutely electric as a knockout artist. Unfortunately, things quickly went sideways for O’Malley once again, this time in what figured to be a big test against Marlon Vera. “Chito” did well to damage O’Malley with a lot of hard leg kicks, leading him to eventually crumple due to injury. That meant another layoff, and at this point, it was an open question if O’Malley’s body would hold up well enough for him to realize his potential. Upon his return, the UFC slow-played O’Malley to an obvious degree, giving him a series of showcase fights that served their purpose—at least up until the point when he was suddenly thrown into the deep end against former champion Petr Yan at the end of 2022. While O’Malley might not have deserved the decision win that went his way in a close fight, it’s hard to argue that it was by far the most impressive victory of his career. He had not reacted particularly well to the few moments of true adversity that he had experienced throughout his career, and he put in three complete rounds against a dedicated buzzsaw of violence. The result also gave O’Malley enough credibility to be rushed into a title shot against Aljamain Sterling, and he cashed in on the opportunity in impressive fashion. After a slow first round, O’Malley blasted Sterling with a knockout counter to close the show, validating both the hype and the comparisons to Conor McGregor. O’Malley’s first title defense was a bit controversial, at least in the leadup. With no shortage of potential next challengers in a deep division, the call was made to give O’Malley the opportunity to avenge his loss to Vera, who had won his most recent fight but seemed to be clearly outside the list of next contenders. Even adjusting for that, O’Malley’s victory over Vera in March continued his streak of raising the bar. It’s not a shock that he was able to pick Vera apart at will early on, but it was highly impressive that he kept it up for five rounds, addressing both the cardio and durability issues that had been ongoing threads throughout his career. O’Malley is putting together something special, and the best part of it all is that he has a murderer’s row of contenders lined up to try and unseat him. Next up is the long-awaited title shot for Dvalishvili.

It’s a bit funny to go back six or seven years and look at Dvalishvili as he was starting in the UFC, given where he is now. For one, “The Machine” earned his contract when UFC President Dana White watched him score a 15-second knockout via spinning backfist, which was false advertising of sorts. While it reflects Dvalishvili’s balls-to-the-wall approach, the Georgian—both then and now—has been at his best as a relentless wrestler and rarely a finisher. Given how unstoppable Dvalishvili has looked in recent years, it’s still a bit shocking to look back and see that he started his UFC career with two straight losses. Frankie Saenz threw enough volume to win a decision in the face of Dvalishvili’s massive advantage in control time, and a controversial result against Ricky Simon saw Dvalishvili lose via submission when he was unconscious in a guillotine choke at the final horn. Since then, Dvalishvili has been firing on all cylinders with 10 straight wins, some of which have been absolutely inhuman performances where the Georgian has set a breakneck pace and broke multiple records in terms of takedown volume. Dvalishvili’s last two victories have been particularly difficult to comprehend. A main event win over Yan saw Dvalishvili attempt 49 takedowns while completing 11 of them, and after a rough first round against Henry Cejudo in February, he wound up exhausting and bullying a former Olympic champion wrestler without much trouble. The other impressive part is that Dvalishvili was clearly a top contender even before raising the bar with those two performances. He likely would have gotten his title shot by now if not for his friendship with Sterling, who at one point was even willing to leave the weight class as champion in order to give his friend the opportunity at championship glory. Of course, no fighter is unbeatable, so there are some drawbacks to Dvalishvili’s approach. Even as he has developed as a striker, there still isn’t much in the way of defense in his game. To his credit, Dvalishvili hasn’t really needed it. While some opponents, most notably Marlon Moraes, have cracked him hard in the early going, Dvalishvili has kept bouncing back surprisingly well and going back to breaking his opponent with pace. However, giving O’Malley those openings is an entirely different matter. It’s just a question of whether or not the champion’s precision is enough to close the show on his challenger before Dvalishvili gets things rolling downhill. O’Malley’s gas tank looked much improved against Vera, but history still shows that his cardio is breakable. Given that Dvalishvili is only surviving in this fight if he keeps finding takedowns and that O’Malley is a solid enough grappler to fight the Georgian off, it will probably take multiple rounds of a fast-paced grind for the challenger to find the champion’s breaking point. While it wouldn’t be a shock if Dvalishvili found some takedowns early on, his lack of an immediate submission threat and the rinse-and-repeat nature of his wrestling game means that O’Malley will keep finding opportunities as the fight resets; and it’s hard not to see O'Malley landing a knockout blow when given so many chances to do so. The pick is O’Malley via second-round knockout.

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O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili
Grasso vs. Shevchenko
Lopes vs. Ortega
Zellhuber vs. Ribovics
Rodriguez vs. Osbourne
The Prelims