Prime Picks: UFC 232

UFC 232 is now available on Amazon Prime.

The year’s final event inside the Octagon is upon us this weekend as UFC 232 takes place Saturday night at The Forum in Inglewood, California. The Ultimate Fighting Championship has stacked the deck for the last show of 2018 as the card features two title fights as well as a number of other exciting matchups that should lead to one of the best cards in recent memory. Odds are available for all 13 bouts on the bill, and here are some of my favorite plays in the UFC 232 edition of Prime Picks.

Petr Yan (-270)

As far as the bigger favorites on the UFC 232 card go, the one I like the most is Yan (10-1) to beat Douglas Silva de Andrade (25-2, 1 NC). Yan is only 25 and has quickly racked up quite a bit of experience since making his pro MMA debut in 2013. He was the ACB bantamweight champion before signing with the UFC, where he’s gone 2-0 with victories over Teruto Ishihara and Jin Soo Son. He has excellent striking skills and legitimate knockout power for a bantamweight. Yan is one of the top prospects at 135 in MMA and with a statement victory against de Andrade could be in line for a top-ranked opponent his next time out. It won’t be an easy fight, but I still think Yan will win. De Andrade has actually been somewhat successful in the UFC with a 3-2 record that includes a notable win over Marlon Vera, but he was dominated in his losses to Zubaira Tukhugov and Rob Font and that scares me here against such a talented fighter like Yan. When de Andrade is the nail he’s effective, and he does have 20 career wins by finish. But most of those finishes came in Brazil against lower-caliber opponents and he hasn’t been as successful in the UFC when he’s fought foes who throw heat back. Yan is not going to let de Andrade bully him here. Either Yan gets the knockout or wins a decision, but either way I like him here at -275.

Curtis Millender (-150)

A short favorite I like is Millender, who I believe will defeat Siyar Bahadurzada in a battle of welterweights on winning streaks. Millender (16-3) is currently riding an eight-fight win streak and has looked very impressive so far in the Octagon with victories over Max Griffin and Thiago Alves. At 6’3” and blessed with a 78” reach, Millender has the perfect frame for the welterweight division and at age 31 he’s in the prime of his career. Aside from a rough patch in 2015 when he lost three fights, Millender has been a winner his entire career. To be honest, I’m a little surprised he’s fighting Bahadurzada here, as I figured the UFC would get Millender a top-15 opponent. Bahadurzada is on a three-fight win streak and has a nice 4-2 record overall in the UFC, but he has averaged one fight a year since entering the Octagon in 2012. He has been a bit of a surprise lately with three straight wins by stoppage, but the wins have come against low-level opposition and Millender is the best opponent he’s had in years. Millender has quite a few advantages in this fight and at -145 odds there’s value on him to get his hand raised.

Alexander Volkanovski (+140)

For an underdog play, I have my eyes set on Volkanovski (18-1) to defeat Chad Mendes (18-4). No doubt Mendes is one of the best in the world at 145, but I’m extremely high on Volkanovski and believe he is a future champion in the featherweight division. Volkanovski is currently riding a 15-fight win streak including a 5-0 run so far in the Octagon. In his last outing, he picked up the biggest win of his career so far when he dominated Darren Elkins for a decision win. The 30-year-old Aussie is a powerful wrestler with big punching power and heavy ground-and-pound and has been nothing but impressive since entering the major leagues. The UFC is giving Volkanovski a chance to fight a top-10 fighter in Mendes to see what he’s made of. Mendes recently returned from a two-year suspension to claim a knockout over Myles Jury. He’s fought the best in the division for years, but has never been able to go from contender to champion. At age 33, it’s hard to say if Mendes is going to make a run for the belt considering all the damage he has taken in his career. It’s just hard to ignore the three knockout losses he’s suffered in the UFC, and if Volkanovski clips him, I think he can finish him. Give me Volkanovski at +130 odds to claim the upset.

Bevon Lewis (+100)

A slight underdog who I like to win is Lewis (6-0) to defeat Uriah Hall (13-9). I think Lewis has a lot of potential, and this looks like the perfect situation to fade Hall. Lewis got a UFC deal after a TKO win on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series and since making his pro MMA debut in 2015 he’s shown off some very impressive striking. Lewis trains at Jackson-Wink MMA where he is rapidly honing his skills and the UFC is clearly very high on him as the matchmakers have given him a chance to fight a notable veteran in Hall in his UFC debut. Hall has been extremely inconsistent since entering the Octagon with just a 6-7 record to show for his efforts. Although he does have knockout power and claimed a huge upset over Gegard Mousasi a few years ago, for the most part Hall has looked overmatched anytime he’s fought someone with finishing ability. Hall has lost four of his last five fights and has been knocked out in three of those bouts. You have to fade Hall here against the younger Lewis, and at -105 there is some value here on Lewis to get the win.

Adam Martin is a mixed martial arts journalist who has been covering the sport since 2011. He is currently the lead odds analyst for Sherdog.com as well as the lead staff writer for MMAOddsbreaker.com. Adam is also the co-host of “The Parting Shot Podcast” on iTunes. His favorite fight of all time is Dan Henderson vs. Shogun Rua and he wishes Pride never died. Adam is based out of Toronto, Ontario, Canada, and he is a graduate of the University of Toronto and Centennial College. Get in touch with him on Twitter @MMAdamMartin.

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