Prime Picks: UFC 275 ‘Teixeira vs. Prochazka’

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The Ultimate Fighting Championship will soon post up in what has become the sole venue of One Championship since October 2020. The promotion on Saturday will bring with it a clean dozen matches in easily the biggest card the sovereign city-state has ever received. A pair of worthwhile picks jump off the page in this UFC 275 edition of Prime Picks, along with a rude awakening for a young Chinese prospect and a knockout artist who should run into an Australian stone wall.

Jiri Prochazka Wins by TKO/KO (-135)

Defending champion Glover Teixeira embodies Rodney Dangerfield’s stand-up comedy persona: He don’t get no respect at all. After claiming the light heavyweight strap north of 40 to put a cherry on top of his Cinderella story, Teixeira decided to stick around and attempt to keep an iron grip on his title. His first challenger comes in the form of an all-offense destroyer in Prochazka, who practically rides in with flames at his heels, having finished his last 10 opponents with strikes. As a result, the champion finds himself as a significant +175 underdog, even though there exists a distinct path to victory that’s as clear as can be. Every fight Teixeira takes, more begin to wonder when his durability and recoverability will catch up to his 42-year-old body with 40 pro bouts to date. With what Prochazka brings to the table, this pick as a slight minus nets a great deal of value. While there’s one better for Prochazka to win in Rounds 1 or 2 at +130, few books offer this certain prop.

It would not at all be surprising if Teixeira does it again, outlasting the more dangerous opponent on the feet, taking some licks, getting his head back about him and taking Prochazka out. This line of Teixeira Wins Inside Distance at or above +255 is one worth claiming if you believe the Brazilian pulls another rabbit out of the hat. The favored challenger holds most physical advantages when they collide, from height and reach to age and cage wear. Prochazka would love nothing more than for Teixeira to chomp down on his gumshield and hurl leather, but the Brazilian has to be smart and pursue his tremendously underrated grappling at all costs. Keeping “Denisa” against the fence or constantly fighting off takedown tries will wear the challenger out and further allow Teixeira to gain the upper hand and hunt for a stoppage, be it from a choke or just straight ground-and-pound. This spoiler is very apparent but one that relies on the massive “if” of Teixeira’s chin and wherewithal keeping together to spring a comeback.

Five-round experience firmly sits in favor of the champion, even if he is just 1-2 in fights that get out of Round 3. Should it get there, the early stages of the third round will likely be the turning point, as Prochazka’s torrid offense begins to slow. That, unfortunately for Teixeira, means he will have to take everything the Czech fighter throws at him for 10 brutal minutes. Even with the sample size low due to Prochazka only having two UFC appearances under his belt, volume and accuracy are both highly in his favor, and his creativity to chain together unorthodox-yet-effective strikes is practically unmatched in this weight division. Prochazka will have trained heavily on both his takedown defense and get-up game—the latter may be more crucial for this match, so that Teixeira does not rack up control time and sap his energy reserves—but every fight starts on the feet. Typically, grapplers get the edge in the classic striker-versus-grappler oversimplification, but Prochazka’s attack is so powerful and unexpected that it cannot be ignored. In what could be a true two-outcome affair, the sheer unmeted aggression of Prochazka tips the scales and makes his play worth it; for those looking for something with which to pair a line, the under of 2.5 rounds at -190 is spot on.

Valentina Shevchenko Wins Inside Distance (+160)

With a prohibitive but not unearthly favorite at -550, there is little juice in the squeeze for either the champion in Shevchenko or the hopeful challenger in Taila Santos at +425. Like the main event, digging down to the props is where the true value lies, and this one in particular brings with it the expectation that “Bullet” will blast straight through Santos and become the first woman to finish her. Santos charges head-long into the fray, with heavy hands for her weight division and decent enough volume to keep the other on their toes. When it comes to the woman whom some are calling the greatest current pound-for-pound fighter, regardless of gender, it’s an uphill battle for the Brazilian that will find her stunned when she learns that “brick hit back.”

With Santos at 19-1 and without doing any digging into those opponents, on paper it sounds like it would be impressive for Shevchenko to do what no woman has done and put the Brazilian away. However, the Astra Fight Team representative does not have what most would consider a “regular” record. Santos amassed 14 wins in her first 14 fights before getting the call up to Dana White’s Contender Series in 2018, and she had notched 12 of those by stoppage. Those 14 opponents, however, combined for a paltry record of 7-11-1 when she encountered them. The only ones who blossomed into anyone of note were future fellow UFC fighter Josiane Nunes in her first pro fight and 2018 DWCS alum Gisele Moreira. For all intents and purposes, Santos posts a 5-1 record when filtering out the careful matchmaking to build her up. This padded record has, however, given her confidence to approach every fight with nearly reckless aggression, acting as a serious frontrunner and always forcing opponents to fight off their back foot. Against Shevchenko, this approach will fail miserably.

Shevchenko has displayed a remarkable ability to turn fighters’ greatest strengths against them. Overpowering Jessica Andrade, schooling talented wrestler Lauren Murphy on the mat and beating crafty striker Katlyn Chookagian on her own terms for a time are but a few examples of her fearsome demonstrations. Her takedowns have improved by leaps and bounds in the flyweight division, landing at least one in every one of her matches at 125 pounds thus far; Santos has to know she will be taken for a ride in this match. If Mara Romero Borella can ground her multiple times, Shevchenko—billed as a simple kickboxer, yet possessing nearly as many wins by tapout as she does knockout—will be sure to clasp her arms around the Brazilian’s waist and make her life miserable on the mat. Once there, Santos will find that her strength and explosive movements begin to fade. As her confidence abandons her, the finish will be soon to follow.

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Steve Garcia (-175)

In less than a week, Garcia has climbed from about -140 to -175 and growing, and the reason is not imminently clear. Since then, in fact, Maheshate Hayisaer has actually gained two professional wins on his record due to the diligent work of the Sherdog Fight Finder team. At 8-1 rather than 6-1, some additional confidence could come in on the youngster from China. On his DWCS debut, Maheshate appeared to be a very unfinished product but one that could develop into a real threat one day. After scoring a contract from the stingier-than-usual UFC President Dana White, possibly thanks to his being the only Chinese fighter to win that season, Maheshate takes on the battle-tested Garcia in his UFC debut. This may be a bridge too far, too soon for the 23-year-old. If Garcia can be snagged under -200, he should still be worthwhile.

Experience matters, especially when Maheshate comes in with just two victories over opponents with winning records. Remember, one of those two wins came on DWCS. While Maheshate worked his way up the questionable recordkeeping of the Wu Lin Feng league, Garcia slugged it out in Bellator MMA early in his career, even knocking out Olympic alternate wrestler Shawn Bunch in his second pro bout. More importantly, Garcia has proudly displayed the ability to come back from adversity, succumbing to a pair of knockdowns from Charlie Ontiveros in his last outing, only to knock him out in the next round. If things get too rough for “Mean Machine” on the feet, he can change gears in a snap and transition to a double-leg. Having displayed more skills in higher-level matches, Garcia is the rightful favorite here but not one so substantial that a drilling down is required.

Jake Matthews (+130)

For a fighter who has been around the Octagon since the middle of 2014, Matthews’ age always seems to come as a shock whenever the subject arises. “The Celtic Kid”—a fighter who still can lay claim to such a nickname—will turn 28 in August, and he has truly developed as a fighter in the UFC in several key areas. It may sound trite, but Matthews has mixed his martial arts to a great deal, compared to his grappling-first days when he was not interested in trying things out on the feet. The whole time, his ability to leverage the fight to the canvas has improved, as well, so long as he does not square off against a submission specialist. Barring getting caught fresh out of the gate by an energized Andre Fialho—a very real possibility, given how the Portuguese standout has fought lately—Matthews as a live underdog maintains the durability to outlast his counterpart and gain the upper hand on the mat.

Fialho as a slight favorite could make this play look silly in a hurry if he marches Matthews down and punches him out like he did Cameron VanCamp a month ago. The Portugal native possesses power in spades, even if much of his effective offense comes from his technical boxing skills and not as a traditional kickboxer. With Fialho having recorded 13 knockouts in 16 wins, 11 of them in the first round, Matthews will be firmly planted in the danger zone when the opening bell sounds. It will be up to the Aussie to do enough to slow down Fialho’s bull-like charges with clinching and takedown entries, all while aiming level changes when Fialho swings with one of his home-run shots. If not ultimately confident with Matthews, Fialho wins by TKO/KO is a clean +125, which is the most obvious and still quite valuable path to victory for him. The under of 1.5 could also be a potential option at +140, giving Matthews the opportunity for a club-and-sub should Fialho get overzealous on the feet.