Prime Picks: UFC 276 ‘Adesanya vs. Cannonier’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship is holding nothing back for its tentpole event to cap off International Fight Week on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. A dozen important and relevant matchups fill out its all-killer-no-filler” lineup, and the betting spread provides a veritable buffet of wallet padders. The UFC 276 edition of Prime Picks wheels out a reasonable option in a hypercompetitive title fight, a pick-’em that should not be close to a pick-’em, an old lion who still has plenty of bite left and a potential rude awakening for an unbeaten Irishman.

Max Holloway (+170)

Down 0-2 against the reigning champ in his weight class, Holloway finds himself between a rock and a hard place. While the option always exists for “Blessed” to bless himself with 10 more pounds in a shift to the lightweight division, if Alexander Volkanovski wins their co-main event, the Aussie could move up there to face additional challengers there, as well. Volkanovski has made his intentions known of seeking a second belt at 155 pounds, and the worst nightmare for Holloway would be for him to lose to the champion, move up and find Volkanovski holding that throne, too. With both of their fights close— the second saw a majority of scorers side with Holloway—the Hawaiian should not lose faith that a third try will not go his way. The betting line should be much closer, and as a result, Holloway as the significant underdog is quite tantalizing.

Both fighters have improved since their last meeting nearly two years ago, with a pair of wins under the belt of each featherweight great. While Volkanovski has staved off hungry challengers in Brian Ortega and Chan Sung Jung—he ran roughshod on the latter in a way few others could imagine—Holloway displayed two radically different skill sets in his performances. The boxing clinic put on Calvin Katter was one that reshaped several record books, and his victory over Yair Rodriguez was surprising for a different reason. Leading into the match with “El Pantera,” Holloway had landed five takedowns across 24 appearances. Against Rodriguez, he grounded the high-flying Mexican striker three times. This new wrinkle in Holloway’s game could give Volkanovski a new angle to think about.

The success of “Alexander The Great” has been nothing short of remarkable, with his 11-0 record inside the Octagon allowing him to come out most matches unscathed. Ortega placed him in submission danger twice, but his calm demeanor allowed him to not fall victim to anything. The only fighter who has been able to match his volume and pace has been Holloway, who still fell short on the significant strike tallies in both meetings. His use of leg kicks to take a bit of the sting out of Holloway’s hands is paramount to his success, and even one check from the challenger could make a big difference. Even if Holloway wins, the promotion will find itself in a bit of a pickle, as the future challenger will hold two memorable wins over the champion, and a fourth—or even fifth, depending on the result—meeting could be on the table. For this matchup specifically, Holloway at high plus money is more valuable than the odds-on favorite. At the very least, he is a better play than either of the two men in the main event ahead of them. If one wants to be safe, the line that the fight lasts longer than 3.5 rounds at -275 or prop bet of the clash going the distance at -225 are both decent, even if they may be juicier as part of a parlay.

Sean Strickland (-110)

For all of his bluster, banter, awkward political asides and comments, Strickland is unquestionably an intelligent fighter. His approach to fights rarely varies even if microphones find themselves before him, and his in-cage performances reflect this, as well. Some maligned Strickland for “playing it safe” in his matches with Uriah Hall and Jack Hermansson, but the undiscussed upside was that even though he absorbed plenty of strikes, he took little noticeable damage. Somehow, the technical boxer has been able to stand in arm’s reach of an opponent while constantly putting his hands in their face without fear of reprisal. It may sound like a bold strategy against a powerful kickboxer, but he has already passed that test in this division. With other tools at his disposal that Alex Pereira does not likely celebrate, Strickland should be more heavily favored than he is currently.

“Poatan” will be the taller man with the longer reach, and that is something he should capitalize on and use to his benefit. Keeping to his own range and not the one Strickland will impose on him will be essential to Pereira getting his hand raised. If allowed to unleash his blistering body kicks and lash out with some to the head, Pereira has a solid chance at victory. He will have to do so against an opponent who can push a five-round pace behind frustrating pressure and a stifling jab that few others in the division maintain. Strickland does also have a fallback option should he get cracked—his ability to take the fight down if need be. An underrated asset in his toolkit, Strickland can make the Brazilian concerned about the takedown to set other strikes up and otherwise fluster the powerful kickboxer. It would not be surprising for smart money to come in this week tipping the outspoken middleweight in favored territory, so get him at practically even money while the opportunity exists. If one wants to take a risk on a very reasonable result, look no further than the stellar prop of Strickland by submission at +900.

Robbie Lawler (-122)

The fire truly appeared back in September 2021, when Lawler snapped a lengthy losing streak at the expense of old rival Nick Diaz. The two, up a division at middleweight, traded hands in furious fashion for almost 11 hard minutes until Diaz had reached his limit. Lawler, 39 years old at the time, appeared to have his mojo back, with a chin that could still take punishment and the fists that were willing to dish it back out. Depending on one’s perspective, the UFC may or may not be doing a disservice to Lawler by matching him with fellow brawler Bryan Barberena. On the one hand, Lawler will almost certainly absorb more blows and take damage. On the other, “Bam Bam” is the ideal opponent to match him with at this stage in his legendary career—a tireless yet defensively flawed striker who would be happy to stand and bang.

Barberena should also be thanking his lucky stars for drawing an opponent like Lawler while on a two-fight winning streak in his division. In his last four bouts, Barberena’s foes have grounded him a combined 22 times, and he has not reciprocated even once. Lawler will have none of that, securing exactly one single takedown in his last 10 outings, and that one was memorable: the fireman carry slam of Ben Askren. This should be almost exclusively contested on the feet unless one man gets dropped, and of the two, Barberena has had his legs give way more often than Lawler of late. Even with more miles for a career that began over eight years before his adversary, this version of Lawler should still have enough to get past Barberena. If they play their cards right and their beards hold together, they could also stare down potential $50,000 bonus checks for what should be a wild one.

Gabriel Green (+145)

The shine of an unblemished record can blind some bettors, who simply bet on the zero to stick around no matter the opponent. On extreme rare occasions—in cases like Philip Miller and Khabib Nurmagomedov—that may pay out until the bitter end. For the lion’s share of other fighters to ever set foot in a ring or cage, a loss is inevitable and can even make that competitor better in the long run. In this occasion, the 9-0 Ian Garry celebrates a lavish record with two-thirds of his wins coming by stoppage, but this step up in competition might be too much to surpass. The value is substantial in an underdog Green, whose overwhelming volume may be too much for the youngster from Ireland to handle.

Green’s lone loss in the Octagon came in his promotional debut to future contender Daniel “D-Rod” Rodriguez and he put together a great accounting for himself even though he slowed as Rodriguez got the better of him. Two subsequent outings in big performances over Philip Rowe and Yohan Lainesse cemented Green as a striker to watch, as he has proven to not be afraid to absorb one to land two. On the other side, before he himself got sniped with a right hand, Jordan Williams had Garry on the ropes. A more polished practitioner like Green can unquestionably achieve what Williams could not by pressuring the Irishman and forcing him into bad situations where he has to sacrifice offense for getting himself off the cage or staving off takedowns. Green is well-rounded enough to threaten in every stage of the fight, and at plus money, a “Gifted” pick might seem like a gift to some savvy bettors.