Prime Picks: UFC 291 ‘Poirier vs. Gaethje 2’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship throws its second pay-per-view at fans in the month of July, with a show that has no real titles on the line. Despite this, one of the most thrilling rematches the UFC could possibly make will come to fruition in the marquee attraction, with the two participants receiving five more rounds of potential fire and fury. Join the UFC 291 edition of Prime Picks as we pick the rightful favorite in the headliner, turn up our collective noses at one former champ in the co-main event and remind the masses that power is always the last thing to go.

STRAIGHT UP CASH

Dustin Poirier (-155)

Poirier was on the edge of defeat for much of his first meeting with Justin Gaethje in 2018, only to fight through the pain and dust the former World Series of Fighting champion early in the fourth round. Barely able to walk out of the cage on his own power, Poirier took one of his worst beatings ever while still managing to call himself the victor. Since their all-time throwdown, the similarities between the two lightweight greats have been remarkable. Both have gone 6-2 since then, with four stoppage wins and two decisions opposite two submission losses to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira. “The Diamond” and “The Highlight” have also put on “Fight of the Year” contenders with Michael Chandler recently, with both beating the ex-Bellator MMA champ. Despite all they have gone through, their styles and skills have not largely transformed since April 14, 2018. If one man has the upside since then, it is Poirier’s strength of schedule but not by the largest of margins, depending on how view the 2021 edition of Conor McGregor. The biggest difference? Poirier has displayed an ability and affinity to check leg kicks, which will help him overcome Gaethje in the rematch.

Gaethje arguably had his best moments against Poirier when chewing up his lead leg. He seemingly could not miss when throwing kicks, while Poirier had no answer other than to occasionally counter them. By then, the damage was done, and it was the kind of battering that would have made most other lightweights tap out by the 10-minute mark. Poirier’s off-the-charts toughness, when coupled with his superior gas tank, allowed him to turn it on when Gaethje wore himself out with his powerful blows. The “Straight Up Cash” designation of this headliner is by no means denigrating the destructive prowess that is Gaethje but rather centers on the belief that Poirier can pull off the win by not making mistakes.

The way to beat Poirier since he has developed into his final form has been to wear him down with wrestling and snatch hold of a submission when he is unaware. Gaethje may have recorded a takedown on Rafael Fiziev, which happened to be his first as a UFC fighter, but it is by no means a weapon he plans on using to any major degree. This means that Poirier will be able to commit to his strikes without fear of throwing himself off-balance and making himself susceptible to getting grounded. On the other side of the equation, Poirier can secure takedowns by closing the distance and suddenly changing levels. Gaethje rarely allows himself to get pushed up against the fence for long, so this could simply be the fifth-to-ninth rounds of their knock-down, drag-out battle. If that occurs, Poirier can keep a high pace for all five rounds, all while staying sharp as Gaethje fades. It may take a herculean effort for another match on the lineup to surpass this for “Fight of the Night,” but it is one where Poirier seems to have an edge that will put him further into championship contention again.

STRAIGHT UP PASS

Alex Pereira (-105)

Given that he cut weight from above 200 pounds to make the middleweight limit, Pereira may look about the same come fight night in his new weight category. Many expected he would be as large as some of the more imposing light heavyweights already, as he may have put on more muscle mass. This could help him in terms of raw power, but it also may work against him if the strikes he launches swing that much slower and use that much more energy. Pereira will be the taller man against Jan Blachowicz, with a slight reach advantage, even though it is his shorter strikes that pack the pop that made him famous. It will behoove the ex-kickboxer to walk Blachowicz down, crowd him against the wall and work the body to open up head shots. It is no easy feat to put Blachowicz away, and the Polish vet sports a vast toolkit compared to the striking-first Pereira. At almost even money, Pereira may not be the best bet on the billing.

It is one thing to punch out Donegi Abena and take Artem Vakhitov to two close decisions but quite another to tangle with a former UFC champ like Blachowicz in four-ounce gloves. Those aforementioned names account for Pereira’s only noteworthy combat experience above his standard weight category around 185 pounds. The Brazilian will hope that his punching power comes up with him to his new weight class, as he faces off against a man in Blachowicz who does not shy away from an exchange on the feet. Pereira must keep this fight standing at all costs, and he will, to quote Laura Sanko, “have to advertise the cost of admission.” This means he should make Blachowicz pay should the Polish fighter try to move the fight to a horizontal means, whether with a well-timed knee, quick counterstrikes or solid blows on the break when he disengages from attempts or clinches.

The UFC lauds Blachowicz and his “Polish power,” even after he celebrated his 40th birthday in February. This is a fair assessment given his body of work inside the Octagon, with five knockouts opposite a pair of submissions to date. What goes understated is his ability to generally bring the fight to where he wants to take it. The lone defeats for Blachowicz in the last several years came in a furious brawl with then-surging Thiago Santos and courtesy of Glover Teixeira’s grappling mastery. Neither of those approaches, nor what Magomed Ankalaev achieved in their recent draw, are strategies that Pereira can adequately copy. This has the makings of a trap fight in a very difficult stylistic matchup for “Poatan” in his new division.

DOG WILL HUNT

Derrick Lewis (+185)

How could any fighter other than the UFC’s all-time knockout leader—he is currently tied with Matt Brown—be the most dangerous underdog coming into UFC 291? This aging version of “The Black Beast” has unquestionably lost a step, having suffered three straight stoppage losses in rapid succession to Tai Tuivasa, Sergei Pavlovich and Sergey Spivak. As a result, Lewis has tumbled down to the preliminary portion of the billing, receiving this non-main card placement for the first time since meeting Damian Grabowski in 2016. It is a major drop down the totem pole for the Houstonian to go from likely top contenders in Spivak and Pavlovich to fellow 38-year-old and ex-light heavyweight Marcos Rogerio de Lima. The Brazilian can crack, and he succeeds when maintaining unexpectedly weighty top position, but he is defensively porous and relies often on his heft rather than sheer skill to get things done. Lewis’ chin may not be what it once was, but it is impossible to ever count him out.

Lewis used to thrive by standing right in front of opponents, taking their best shot and giving it back twice as hard. It may have been an overreliance on his durability rather than his head movement or footwork, but no one accidentally notches the most knockouts in the history in the company. The burly brawler has not been much of a volume striker, either, and he can get stuck in a pattern of spamming flying knees that never come close to landing. When he lands that one right strike, however, it is not stinging power. It is not stunning or knee-shaking either, but the rather kind of year-altering, “I’ve made a huge mistake”-type—one that has an opponent reevaluating his life decisions to that point. It may not be the best idea for Rogerio de Lima to think that if others can plunk Lewis he can, too. The smarter decision would be for Rogerio de Lima to punch his way in to a body lock takedown, practically fall on top of Lewis and hold him there until the New Orleans native decides to bench press him off. A few of those cycles could take the wind out of Lewis’ sails, as he does not display the cardio reserves he once held to pull off the late shocker. Lewis as an underdog is always appetizing, and him landing another knockout with odds around +270 may not be a total waste if one wants to push that plus sign higher.

AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION:

Jake Matthews (-260)

Matthew Semelsberger (-210)

Miranda Maverick (-300)

TOTAL ODDS: +173

Three favorites will be the puzzle pieces that, when put together, provide a solid +173 or so—your odds may slightly vary depending on your book of choice—and all three have very reasonable and clear paths to victory. None of the fighters will have to hope for a mistake or need to even be their absolute best in order to get through who they are facing in Salt Lake City. The first comes in established vet Matthews, who is six days the elder of UFC newcomer Darrius Flowers. The seemingly eternally youthful Matthews will be entering his 18th outing in the Octagon, which just so happens to be the number of professional fights on his adversary’s ledger. In what amounts to a puncher’s chance, Flowers steps in on short notice for Miguel Baeza and has to rely on catching Matthews early if he hopes to prevail. The Aussie’s striking has improved by leaps and bounds since joining the company in 2014, and his submission chops are intelligent and advantageous. Barring an early knockout for Flowers—that would blow up this parlay and check the +350 box for that particular outcome—Matthews has many more ways to win this encounter.

While Uros Medic will be moving up to welterweight, this will not be his first jaunt in the weight class; in fact, the Alaskan by way of Serbia actually made his pro debut at middleweight. Despite their frames measuring the same height, Semelsberger will be the rangier man and may also appear heftier in the cage. Semelsberger will need to fight smart when his counterpart comes charging at him, as Medic has still never gone beyond the 8:05 mark as a pro. “The Doctor” could threaten should he place Semelsberger on the canvas, and he throws everything and the kitchen sink right out of the gate. Semelsberger can drag the late replacement into deep waters, and his punching power is not to be ignored given the litany of knockdowns registered in his last few appearances. Whether by a finish or decision, “Semi the Jedi” can use the force to secure the victory and get himself back in the win column.

Coming in on short notice after a loss at the beginning of June, Maverick nevertheless will clock in as one of the larger favorites on the whole lineup. Replacing an injured Joanne Wood, Maverick wants to bounce back by topping aggressive Brazilian striker Priscila Cachoeira. Both women prefer to be the hammer and not the nail, and in order for “Zombie Girl” to spring the upset, she will have to land flush early and often. The shorter Maverick has the stop-gap measure of her wrestling, and Cachoeira’s takedown defense is hardly outstanding. If Maverick gets popped, she can chain together attempts until she manages to put the Brazilian on her back, and from there, she may be able to ride out the rest of the round with smart top control. A lone bet on Maverick at such high odds does not appear to be the most valuable of propositions, but the moneyline when parlayed with two other strong favorites completes this three-leg accumulator.