Prime Picks: UFC 306 ‘O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili’

When the dust settles on Saturday at The Sphere in Las Vegas, the Ultimate Fighting Championship will have firmly entered its “hard work pays off” era. The promotion will likely have several champions who made their way to the throne not by speaking their way to title shots or by any one mind-blowing performance. Instead, it will be the grind these fighters have embraced on their way to greatness. On this UFC 306 edition of Prime Picks, we stamp two more active, dedicated fighters as champions, alongside the likes of Raquel Pennington, Islam Makhachev and Belal Muhammad.

UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!

Merab Dvalishvili (+117)

If our analysis nails it on both accounts, the words “And New” will be shouted not once but twice by Bruce Buffer by night’s end. As historically tends to be the case, incumbent champions serve as the betting favorites ahead of any random defense. That’s how UFC 306 is playing out, with defending titleholders in moderate minus territory against challengers fully capable of upsetting them. The main attraction—one the fans have likely come from across the world to see in this unique Sphere experience, all while shelling out beaucoup bucks to snag a ticket from the robot resellers—is a perfect fight at the right time in a prototypical striker-versus-grappler matchup that has plenty of excitement potential.

Given the horrible stylistic disadvantage for Sean O’Malley defending his belt against a gritty, in-your-face chain wrestler, every additional appearance for the MMA Lab rep should give him a bit more confidence in a fight like this. Barring an unlikely situation where he fires off a combo that ends Dvalishvili’s night early–that line of O’Malley by TKO/KO is +165, even though no one has stopped the Georgian with strikes—it will be an endurance test that he will have to overcome. “Suga Sean” passed the test of the five-rounder his last time out, proving he can compete five hard rounds without gassing in the third frame. However, it is a drastic difference showcasing cardio reserves when one pushes the pace for much of the encounter, as opposed to fighting off the back foot, against the wall or off of their seat.

“The Machine” is the perfect nickname for Dvalishvili, who will seemingly not stop no matter how hard opponents hit him or how many times they stifle his level changes. Some wrestlers can lose their mojo if a few of their early takedowns get stuffed, but that is not Dvalishvili. Break the grip around your waist and frame out, and he is right in front of you going after a single, an outside trip or something else to fluster you. The longer Dvalishvili has his hands on the champ, the better, because it means that O’Malley will not be marking him up from his safe range. Every round starts on the feet, and Dvalishvili is more about activity than controlling position, so there are plenty of avenues for O’Malley to gain some space and do some damage. However, the Serra-Longo Fight Team product cannot be bargained with. He can’t be reasoned with. He doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And he absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are defeated.

Valentina Shevchenko (+117)

Before diving into the particulars, this needs to be said about the Shevchenko-Alexa Grasso rematch at UFC Fight Night 227: Shevchenko won that fight. It’s not because of any specific moment or sequence from either woman within their 25-minute engagement. Instead, it’s an uncharacteristically confusing 10-8 scorecard in favor of Grasso in the fifth round from the typically rock-solid Michael Bell. “Bullet” has every reason in the world to feel the way she does about this third pairing, and she appears to be carrying that with her every step of the way. Thankfully for the former flyweight queen, she’s intelligent and cerebral in the cage—other than a few lapses in judgment to hurl spinning strikes from close range—so she will not likely fight angrily or put herself in adverse positions again to blow it.

Even if Shevchenko does win, she has the clock to contend with just as much as Grasso will be in her face. Historically, male champions in the UFC fare poorly after the age of 35, and the Kyrgyzstan-born woman turned 36 in March. Given the fight mileage on her—she took her first pro bout when she was 13, in an extremely elusive appearance that Fight Finder staff members have attempted to locate for eons—it will undoubtedly catch up to her one day. Some have prognosticated that because of their first fight, and even during parts of the second, Shevchenko has slowed while her unbeatable aura has all but dissipated. While “Bullet” is a vaunted kickboxer, it’s her wrestling that turned her from a great fighter into a champion. If she can employ that without getting clipped or falling into a trap, Shevchenko can turn this into a tetralogy.